Why Florida football can — and can’t — upset Georgia

No one can say how the second half of Florida football’s season will go.The Gators have shown their potential, but they’ve also exposed flaws that have kept them from playing at their best.Understandably, it’s what prompted head coach Jon Sumrall to say after UF’s upset win against Texas:“We still suck as a team. Today we just sucked less.”That inconsistency has made No. 24 Florida one of the more difficult teams to figure out in college football. The Gators’ 27-24 win over Texas was one of five upsets of top-10 teams. One of those included in that chaos was UF’s bitter rival Georgia, who lost in OT to Auburn – a team the Gators beat earlier in the season.The Bulldogs briefly looked like and were the No. 1 team in the country after defeating Alabama a week earlier. Now, Florida and Georgia are set to face off after each had an open week.UF enters the game as a 10.5-point underdog, but the Gators have reasons to believe they can pull off another upset, as well as glaring weaknesses.Here are a few reasons why Florida can and can’t pull off another top-10 upset.Florida has an advantage in the run gameThe Gators have found their groove again, with running back Jadan Baugh proving to be a headache for Texas. This season, Baugh has racked up 763 yards and 13 touchdowns.However, Georgia has struggled to find consistency with its run game after lead back Chauney Bowens is dealing with a right foot injury.UGA has relied on Dwight Phillips and Nate Frazier, who had been dealing with injured ribs. Georgia was held to 113 rushing yards against Auburn, but ran for 206 against Alabama. In that same span, the Bulldog run defense has surrendered 192 yards to the Tigers and 161 to the Crimson Tide. In the first four games of the season, UF ran for over 200 yards in each win, but the abysmal performance against Missouri left the offense spiraling. Since then, the Gators have found traction, totaling 258 yards in their last two games.On the defensive side of the ball, Florida has actually been good against the run. Except for Missouri, every opponent the Gators have faced has been held to under 130 rushing yards. In the last two weeks, South Carolina was limited to 114, and in the win against Texas, the Longhorns mustered only 99.Florida’s lack of disciplineThe Gators are the second most penalized team in the SEC and ranks among as the one of the one most penalized teams in the country.On average, UF is flagged 7.8 times per game for 74.5 yards. Those mistakes could prove especially costly against Georgia, a team that is far less likely to give away free yards.The hope is that Florida has found a way to clean things up during the open week, as a team like Georgia will take full advantage of silly mistakes.By comparison, the Bulldogs are ranked No. 36 as the least penalized team in the country.Recent history is on Georgia’s sideFlorida hasn’t beaten Georgia in four years, and the last victory came during the chaotic 2020 COVID season.The Bulldogs’ head coach Kirby Smart has arguably been the best in the country this decade.Smart hasn’t lost back-to-back regular-season games since his first year at UGA in 2016, which is also the only other year UF has beaten Smart.Despite Georgia’s overtime loss to Auburn giving UF confidence, history suggests the Gators should expect a motivated opponent rather than one still reeling from a loss.  What will the QB matchup look like?Perhaps the biggest wildcard heading into the matchup is the uncertainty at quarterback.Florida’s named starter, Aaron Philo, missed the Texas game with a shoulder injury. Backup quarterback Tramell Jones rose to the challenge and delivered a strong performance, leading the Gators to a win over UT.It’s unknown which quarterback will start or if UF finds a way to use both. That uncertainty may help the Gators as UGA attempts to develop a game plan.Notably, UGA’s star defensive back KJ Bolden missed the matchup against Auburn. His status is unknown heading into the rivalry.Gunner Stockton has been consistent, throwing for 1,570 yards and 16 touchdowns, with four picks.Florida’s secondary has struggled to stop opposing passing games, with its first real success coming against Texas. Yet the Gators rank second-to-last in passing defense in the SEC, and if UGA is limited in the run game, more responsibility will fall on Stockton.Reach Florida Gators writer Andrew Abadie at aabadie@gannett.com or on X (formerly Twitter) at @AndrewAbadie. You can also find him on Facebook at Andrew Abadie Sports Reporter or on Instagram @andrewabadie_sports.This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Why Florida football can — and can’t — upset Georgia