NBA Tips Off Prediction-Market Era With Kalshi, Polymarket

The NBA is officially in the prediction-market business.The league on Monday is naming Kalshi and Polymarket as its “preferred prediction market partners,” sources familiar with the matter told Front Office Sports. The league’s announcement was made Monday morning. The deal means each company will receive the right to use NBA intellectual property, including on their apps and in marketing materials. The WNBA is not automatically included in the commercial agreement and the prediction-market platforms will have to reach separate direct deals for rights and IP, a source tells FOS.Under the deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, the companies will get official league data from Sportradar, which is the NBA’s “official data distribution partner.” Players and league and team employees will not be allowed to trade on NBA event contracts. Financial terms were not disclosed.Like the NHL and MLB before it, the NBA is entering into a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator that oversees the prediction-market industry. That agreement stipulates that the two sides will share information in order to ensure the integrity of NBA-related markets. DraftKings, which is already one of the NBA’s official sports betting partners, is expanding its agreement with the NBA to “include prediction markets and nationwide promotion.” It is not a “preferred prediction market partner” like Kalshi and Polymarket. “The agreement expands our ability to reach and engage eligible customers around NBA event contracts throughout the league ecosystem, complementing the continued expansion of DraftKings Predictions within our broader sports platform,” a DraftKings spokesperson said in a statement to FOS.The NBA’s other official sports betting partner, FanDuel, was not named in Monday’s press release.The league intends to expand its relationships with other companies “in the coming weeks,” meaning FanDuel could still become an authorized prediction-market partner in the near future. A source tells FOS that Novig is expected to finalize an authorized prediction-market partnership with the NBA later this week.All of the league’s prediction-market partners will have to adhere to the restrictions the NBA placed on sportsbooks less than two weeks ago. That includes prohibitions on player props like who will score the first basket of a game and parlays built around statistical unders for players expected to see limited playing time.“Protecting the integrity of the game is our top priority,” said Scott Kaufman-Ross, the NBA’s head of media distribution and partnerships. “As this category develops, we believe it is important to work constructively with regulators and operators to help ensure that appropriate safeguards are in place.”Kalshi’s head of sports partnerships Adam Barrick said in the press release that the relationship Kalshi and the NBA have built “reflects a shared mindset that prioritizes fan engagement, innovation, and safety.”Polymarket’s president of sports business development Ari Borod said the agreement “will allow our customers to engage more deeply with the game of basketball on Polymarket.”The news marks the NBA’s entry into prediction markets at a league level, although individual players have already been in business with companies in the industry. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an investor in Kalshi, while LeBron James recently reached an endorsement deal with Polymarket that FOS reported will pay him $15 million per year.NFL Is the Last HoldoutFront Office Sports reported in September that the league was close to entering into prediction-market deals with multiple partners, with sources saying there were “deal terms on the table.” The league had been weighing whether to get into prediction markets since before last season, and others that have been involved in discussions include Novig, Fanatics, and Rothera, which is a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna.Monday’s announcement leaves the NFL as the last remaining holdout of the major pro U.S. sports leagues (the NFL earlier this month urged the U.S. Supreme Court to weigh in on the issue of sport event contracts and said it currently believes prediction markets should be regulated at the state—not federal—level, even though it’s been holding talks behind the scenes with companies including Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as the CFTC).The NHL was first to dive in, announcing Kalshi and Polymarket as official partners last October. In January, MLS reached a deal with Polymarket, and in March, Polymarket became MLB’s exclusive prediction-market partner under a deal sources told FOS is worth up to $300 million over four years. International soccer leagues like LaLiga and Serie A have also jumped into the prediction-market business; both are partnered with Polymarket. Now that the NBA has officially teamed with Kalshi and Polymarket, individual franchises may begin striking deals of their own, like what has happened in MLB (Novig and the Mets have a multiyear deal, Kalshi has deals with a handful of teams including the Giants, Padres, and Braves, and Polymarket had a short-term agreement with the Yankees that ran through this season). Sources have told FOS that the Warriors and Kalshi could soon announce an agreement, and the Lakers have held talks with multiple prediction-market operators.Monday’s news marks the latest sign that prediction markets are gaining mainstream acceptance, despite controversy, including over sports-event contracts that mirror traditional sports betting. There are dozens of lawsuits involving the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling commissions and officials over whether states can enforce their gambling laws against prediction-market companies. The post NBA Tips Off Prediction-Market Era With Kalshi, Polymarket appeared first on Front Office Sports.