Dan Campbell explains 4th-down decision that could’ve cost Lions game vs. Packers

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 25: Dan Campbell and Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions interact prior to a game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field on October 25, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images) | Getty Images In the fourth quarter of the Detroit Lions’ Week 7 game against the Green Bay Packers, Lions coach Dan Campbell made an aggressive fourth down decision even by his standards. With the game tied at 17 and just under five minutes left, the Lions faced a fourth-and-1 (long 1, if we’re being honest) at Detroit’s own 24-yard line. Instead of punting, Detroit opted to go for it, and Jahmyr Gibbs was tackled for a 2-yard loss that turned the ball over on downs and gave Green Bay the ball already in field goal range. The Lions, however, got a three-and-out defensive stop right after that, and the Packers’ go-ahead 35-yard field goal attempt was deflected by Lions defensive lineman DJ Wonnum and missed the uprights. That allowed the Lions offense to eat up the remainder of the clock and kick the game-winning field goal as time expired for a 20-17 win. Despite it all working out, Campbell certainly faced a lot of criticism for a decision that could’ve—and probably should’ve—been much more costly. However, Campbell had a strong defense of his decision. “Well, I thought we would get it, number one. I really believed we would get that (first down),” Campbell said. “Number two, I knew we would get the ball back if it didn’t work out.” It’s a simple enough response, but the second part is an important point. The Packers took over with 4:50 left at the Lions’ 22-yard line, so there was no real chance they would score and run out the rest of the clock. So, at worst, the Lions would have had plenty of time to either tie or win the game regardless of how Green Bay’s drive ended. Interestingly enough, there was at least one analytical model that approved of Detroit’s aggressive decision in that moment. ESPN’s Seth Walder said that their model had the probabilities in favor of going for it: Solid go on 4th down. This one will be second guessed because of where they are on the field. But value of possession is very high and conversion chance is high on a 4th-and-1. Remember: punts are turnovers ~100% of the time. pic.twitter.com/jD0zwJb2Ie— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 25, 2026What do you think of Campbell’s call?