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Why prediction markets and Wall Street pros so often fail to see what’s coming

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Why prediction markets and Wall Street pros so often fail to see what’s coming
Photo / Coverage: MarketWatch Top StoriesCredit: Mark Hulbert
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The probabilities make it almost certain that macro forecasts will be wrong far more often than right.

Key Takeaways

  • Why prediction markets and Wall Street pros so often fail to see what’s coming.
  • The probabilities make it almost certain that macro forecasts will be wrong far more often than right.
  • The probabilities make it almost certain that macro forecasts will be wrong far more often than right.

The probabilities make it almost certain that macro forecasts will be wrong far more often than right.

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