UNC vs Miami prediction: Will Bill Belichick's Tar Heels upset No. 1 Hurricanes?

For the first time in 22 years, UNC football is hosting a top-five Miami team on Halloween weekend at Kenan Stadium. Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels (4-3, 2-2 ACC) host the top-ranked Hurricanes (7-0, 5-0) on Saturday, Oct. 31 (7:30 p.m., ABC), with hopes of earning the program’s first victory against the No. 1 team in the nation.UNC earned a 31-28 against No. 4 Miami on Halloween weekend in 2004, getting a game-winning field goal from Wilmington native Connor Barth. The Tar Heels are aiming for their sixth straight win against the Hurricanes, who haven’t beaten UNC since 2018. But the Heels are 0-11 in games against the top-ranked team in the country. Watch UNC-Miami on FuboRED-ZONE PROBLEM: UNC football red-zone rate doesn't tell full story for Bill Belichick's Tar Heels“Miami, they're the No. 1 team in the country and they should be,” UNC coach Bill Belichick said during his weekly press conference. “Really impressive. (Miami coach Mario Cristobal has) done, as usual, a great job down there. They're a very well-balanced team, pretty much do everything well.” Here are some things to know, players to watch and a score prediction for UNC vs. Miami. Miami QB Darian Mensah, Miami WR Malachi Toney are Heisman Trophy hopefuls Conversations about the Hurricanes start with quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney, two players hoping to be in New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Mensah leads the nation in completion percentage (81.4%) with 22 touchdowns and one interception. Toney paces all pass-catchers with 66 catches for 952 yards and 11 TDs. If UNC fans want a sign of hope, Mensah was limited to 175 passing yards and a touchdown last season for Duke vs. the Tar Heels. Still, this Miami offense is operating in a different stratosphere with an average of nearly 50 points per game. Mark Fletcher, Miami rushing offense can’t be overlooked by UNC In addition to a potent passing attack, Miami has the 18th rushing offense nationally at 211 yards per game. The Hurricanes have gained at least 119 rushing yards in each of their seven games, including more than 257 yards against Florida State. Running backs Mark Fletcher and Javian Mallory have combined for 858 yards and 14 rushing TDs, averaging nearly 7 yards per carry. The Tar Heels are 91st in rushing defense, allowing an average of nearly 155 yards per game on the ground. The last time it played a top-five opponent, UNC allowed No. 5 Notre Dame to rack up 241 rushing yards. UNC defense, special teams need special play to beat Hurricanes If the Tar Heels are going to pull off an upset against the Hurricanes, it’ll likely involve a special play from the defense or special teams. UNC made it a one-point game against Notre Dame with a game-changing kickoff return for a touchdown and nearly had a ice-the-game fumble recovery for a TD in a win at Pitt. With eight takeaways (5 interceptions, 3 fumble recoveries), UNC is 75th nationally. The Heels have to create some chaos for the Hurricanes to keep the crowd in it and put some game pressure on the visitors. UNC vs Miami score prediction Miami 38, UNC 18: The Tar Heels have improved enough to close in on bowl eligibility, but the Hurricanes are in a different neighborhood as national championship contenders. In what will serve as a gauge-where-we-are game for Bill Belichick’s program, “The U” will pull away in the second half.Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to rbaxley@usatodayco.com.This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC vs Miami prediction: Will Bill Belichick's Tar Heels upset No. 1 Hurricanes?Our editors independently choose our recommendations. Some content is produced with paid support from a third party, however our editorial decisions remain independent. If you buy through our links, the USA TODAY Network may earn a commission. Prices and availability may change.