The Virginia Tech Hokies in the Home Stretch: The Risk Chart Rumbles for the Final Four

Can the Hokies get the running game back to respectable at SMU? | John Schneider - SB Nation There were some big moves happening for the bye week, and Virginia Tech enters the final four games with a major ACC win under its belt, bowl eligibility sealed, and in the hunt for a better position and an outside shot at the ACC “Championship” game.The Final Risk Assessment Chart for NovemberThe college football regular season is now, officially down to Game 9, and by the time the Hokies take to the field after the bye week, they’ll be stacked up against two of the best teams in the ACC who have come off of tough games for the prior week. SMU was beaten by a struggling par 4-4 Syracuse, and Miami had its hands full with a reviving North Carolina team. Let’s take a quick look at the middle four as a recap and then launch into the game prospects for the final stretch heading into the bath calculation that will determine which two ACC teams get to play in Charlotte for the phony ACC Championship.DateTime/ResultsTeamLocationHokie RiskOpponent RiskChance of a WinCommentFINAL FOUR6-Nov7PM ESTSMUDallas TXModerate/HighModerate/High45%SMU Lost their final October game to Syracuse. They are beatable, even at home.14-NovTBAStanfordBlacksburg VAHigh/ModerateModerate/Low60%Stanford has had a few surprises in its schedule and win-loss record. It still should be a Tech win but not as easily done.21-NovTBAMiamiMiami Gardens FLModerate/HighHigh40%This is complex because Miami was undefeated (though almost losing on Saturday) coming into November. It’s the ACC’s only chance for a tournament bid.28-NovTBAVirginiaBlacksburg VAHighModerate/Low65%As predicted the wheels have come off of the 4-5 Hoos. This will be an interesting pride game.COMPLETEDRecalculated Hokie RiskRecalculated Opponent Risk5-Sep7:30PM EDTVMIBlacksburg VAHighLowWinThe blowout against VMI was expected, but Tech’s usual play down to an FCS opponent didn’t happen.12-SepNOONOld DominionBlacksburg VAHigh/ModerateModerate/LowWinThis was a total vengence grudge match. Tech realized that it was a Power Conference Team.19-Sep7:30PM EDTMarylandCollege Park MDModerate/HighModerateWinThe score wasn’t as close as it looked. Tech was dominant and led the entire game.26-SepNOONBoston CollegeChestnut Hill MAModerateModerateWinThe weather was a factor that made Tech’s more complete running game, and better intermediate passing game relevant.2-Oct7PM EDTPittBlacksburg VAModerateModerateLossThe Pitt game will remain the most disappointing home loss in a while if only because it should have been a win.10-Oct3:30 EDTCalBerkeley CAModerateModerate/LowLossThe entire team looked completely out of rhythm. This was the second 1 score 3rd quarter melt down that solidified a major weakness.17-Oct3:30 EDTGeorgia TechBlacksburg VAHigh/ModerateModerate/LowWinGeorgia Tech did struggle in many respects, but the 34-24 Tech homecoming win rescued the Hokies in many respects.24-Oct7:00 EDTClemsonClemson SCModerateModerate/HighWinHokies shock Hokie Nation but not the sports media that walked away from the Tech win in Death Valley with a shrug.The waters are roiled, Tech’s chances improve.A Quick RecapGames five and six, Pitt and Cal, ended up being the worst disappointments of the season, back-to-back. If you took those two games as a whole, you’d have to say that they marked a major pothole in an otherwise surprising season. One Score Pains ReturnThe Pitt game ended in controversy, which was something that probably shouldn’t have happened. The dependence on the final field goal attempt was visited by Nemesis and there is no way that it didn’t have lasting effects on the long road trip to Berkeley for a game that should have been a reasonably comfortable win for the Hokies. The Pitt game, given the history between the teams dating back to the old Big East, was not surprising in its outcome, but what was really concerning was its seeming effect on the team for the Cal contest. The Hokies just struggled at every phase of the game for that one. Ultimately both the defense and the offense stopped functioning in the late third and the entire 4th quarters, except for the final drive that almost scored the winning touchdown. In that game the Hokies’ field goal kicker, John Love, ran into a footwork problem that induced his two misses in the Cal game as a continuation of that controversial “miss” in the Pitt game (also for the win). It brought some serious heat down on Love’s head, and created the need for some real coaching intervention before the Hokies took to the field against fading Georgia Tech.Getting “IT” BackIf you wanted an example of what “IT” is, and how to get it back, the Georgia Tech game is a prime example. The best description of the other ACC Tech is their little Ford 32 Roadster, only after sitting in a north Georgia backyard on blocks for a decade. The team that was flying high in 2025, can’t get off the ground in 2026. But that wasn’t an apparent “thing” when the Wreck came to Blacksburg for a huge matchup for both schools. Both teams needed a turnaround. The Hokies were favored by over a touchdown, but still the prior two losses had left them stunned and drifting. As it turned out, the Hokies managed to recover. John Love found is stroke again. Virginia Tech’s defense still struggled in the 2nd half and the offense still stalled, but both recovered in the 4th quarter. The Virginia Tech win officially broke the skid, and the luck deficit. “It” seemed to flood back into the locker room.The recovery of the “It-factor” wasn’t expected to hold for the Clemson trip. Nearly everyone picked the Tigers to deal another “L” to the Hokies, regardless of the shaky nature of Dabo’s offense. His defense was still at a premium, and Tech’s offensive line as struggling with injuries enough that 3s in the depth chart were playing regularly. Tech’s third quarter fades were beginning to worry folks in the fanbase, and the running game hasn’t really reignited since game four. There was no reason for hope… Until the Tech defense started looking like the Spirit of Bud Foster’s Lunch Pail took over his former student, Brent Pry. Yes, the Tiger offense was woeful, but Tech’s defense took full advantage and held Clemson to a single touchdown and 3 field goals. The rest is going to go down in the history books of great Virginia Tech final five minutes legends. Grunkemeyer and Howle’s final drive to the Clemson five was enough to go for a nearly guaranteed tie and a trip to overtime. James Franklin’s roll of the dice after weighing the capabilities and risks in deciding to go for “IT” on 4th and a yard and a half for the 1st down. With it being a beautifully perfect floater to Tight End Luke Reynolds on a crossing flag route in the endzone, that completely confused the Clemson secondary. What “IT” isThose sorts of gambles make the “establish the run” fans break out into cold sweats and what-ifs, but it worked. The Boobirds harped on the timing, leaving nearly a minute and a half on the clock with a mere 4 point lead. Except, that many winning gambles include many risk calculations that give a program manager (the head coach) the confidence to take that decision. Tech’s defense had played a solid game even discounted by the 3rd quarter issues, and completely shut the Clemson offense down in the 4th quarter. The Hokie defensive line was dominating the Clemson offensive line, and Brent Pry hadn’t used his inner Bud Foster, yet. Pry borrowed James Franklin’s riverboat gambler hat, and sent two corner blitzes to pull off two critical sacks (well one with a the 4th down final stroke coming from the DL with the pressure assist from the corner) to end the game. Some of Clemson’s turf ended up in the Lunch Pail for the first time in nearly a generation… That’s what “IT” is.What’s Coming for the Final FourGetting their confidence back, and then pumping it up with a huge (to the program, anyway) road upset against a bitter conference rival will have some lasting effects if the Hokies can clean up that 3rd quarter fade problem, and figure out how to help a struggling secondary.SMU in Dallas Friday November 6th – 7:00 PM EasternThe first game of the final four is another major challenge for the team’s “IT-factor”. Southern Methodist University lost in a major upset on Halloween. What that means is largely up to SMU’s program and players. They could be fired up or demoralized so there will be no telling until Friday evening when the game kicks off. The oddball Friday evening scheduling, though Tech might benefit from their bye week since it could mean some positive injury benefits for the offensive line. SMU is an early favorite by a touchdown, but those odds might change as things sort out. Right now, the Risk presented by SMU at home, to Tech is reduced just a bit to a Moderate/High but realistically Tech’s risk level to SMU has also improved to a Moderate/High. The difference between the two programs has shrunken considerably since the last evaluation. Though not a push, Tech’s chances of a win improve to just under 50% to 45%.Stanford at Lane Saturday November 14th – TBAStanford has had serious problems this season but it has also come up with a few unexpected upsets (for them) but they have struggled against better rated teams in the ACC. The team is 4-5 overall, and it is expected that by the time they reach Lane Stadium their record will drop since the Hokies will be favored. The Trees are going through a much needed bye week this weekend so they’ll be rested up, but that probably won’t make much of a difference. Look for Tech to work hard to reach the potential of 8 win season (9 if they can defeat SMU) and a much improved bowl prospect.We’ll have to see how the game against SMU falls out, but Tech’s prospects for defeating Stanford haven’t changed all that much since the beginning of the season, except Tech’s improved risks against them to a High/Moderate level. Unless something serious has happened to the Hokies over the week look for them to walk out of Lane Stadium with a convincing win over the Trees. Miami at Coral Gables – Saturday November 21st – TBA Look for the media masters to dictate this one. If you have a 7-3 or even 8-2 Hokie team showing up outside of Miami late in November it’s going to be a prime time event because an 8-2 Hokie team would be challenging for the #2 seed in the ACC “Championship” Game. Currently the pile up at the top of the ACC creates a mess so it’ll be real chaos if the Hokies have added 2 wins to their record by the penultimate week of the ACC regular season.This one might be more complex than anyone would like to admit. Miami barely came away with a one in week 9 three-point win in an almost no defense game against UNC. Tech showing up in southeast Florida with a head of steam and a chip on its collective shoulder will have the ACC bigwigs shaking. The Hurricanes have to play the Irish and Duke before the Hokies head south, and that means they could possibly have two losses on their books… probably one because the ‘Canes are going to have trouble with Notre Dame. This set of unknowns varies the risk slightly, and the Hokies risk to Miami is higher and their risk to Tech hasn’t really changed all that much. With two losses, that might enure to the Hokies’ benefit, though. We’ll see, the prospects for a Hokie win have realistically risen to 40-45%. We’ll shade it to the 40% range to keep it realistic, but two weeks is a lifetime in a football season, and Miami is facing peer or better opponents.The Hoos at Lane Saturday November 28th – No Time Announced (rumored to be 1:00)Look this is going to be a real grudge match. One thing is for absolute certain, the prediction that the wheels would come off of UVA’s cart have come true. The program is currently a dumpster fire and now has sunk below .500 at 4-5. Why the odds haven’t been updated from very early guesses is not surprising, though. The media hates the Hokies almost as much as the ACC. Tech was barely favored back in the beginning of the season. That’s obviously not going to be the case, now. The truth is that UVA is probably going to lose most of the remainder of their games, including the final of the year. The Commonwealth Cup will come home to Blacksburg, and the Hoos will have to figure out why they extended Tony Elliot’s contract on a fluke season.Looking at the Floor and Ceiling of thingsThe risk analysis leads us to the following listing of the potential end records for the Hokies before the program heads into the Bowl season and recruiting period. A. The Hokies split the final four games with Wins at home against the Trees and the Hoos. That leaves Tech with an 8-4 regular season record which is the best since 2018 started the struggle for .500 trend. B. Tech gets one of the two underdog games and defeats either SMU or Miami. That would put the Hokies at a near miraculous 9-3 season that no one expected, and the media would still have problems digesting. With a decent enough bowl opponent Tech would also have a shot at their first 10 win season since 2016. C. Tech wins out… Think about that, it’s not an impossible thought, which is a very interesting realization in itself, and totally not an “expected” outcome, but there is an actual live possibility if Miami drops off the CFB Tournament bubble a loss or two. This is not anymore than a 30% chance, but if you think about the last decade that’s 30 better than the 0% chance that the team has faced.Let’s be realistic. The most probable outcome will be that 8-4 season with two wins at home and two losses on the road. That will net Tech a shot at a good lucrative bowl, some real media notice, and a potential 9 win season. Of course, knocking off either SMU or Miami and setting up the chance for a 10 win season is a tempting possibility to camp on.In any event, this is the first reasonably solid winning season that the Hokies have put together in nearly a decade. Well, it’s 9 years, but the wheels were already coming off the cart as the 2017 season closed out and Tech dropped the game to Oklahoma State. The sine wave seems to have bottomed out and is on the rise. The Polls for the First Game of the Final Four are “Interesting”The Hokies actually registered 12 votes in the AP Top 25 and USA Today Coaches’ polls for 30th place. AP News Top 25 NCAA Football Poll for Week 9NCAA College Football Coaches Poll | USA Today SportsTech still doesn’t register too high with the media, but the coaches are beginning to notice that there is something different going on in Blacksburg.GO HOKIES!!!!