The Outlook - Week 9 (LV-SF, GB-NE, ARI-SEA, TB-CHI, BUF-MIN)

.oembed-frame {width:100%;height:100%;margin:0;border:0;}Hey, folks! We’re back with our third and final block of games for the Week 9 NFL slate, and we’re covering all of the late games, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football!We’ve compiled the groupings of games here to make it easier to find the games you want:Block 1: JAC-BAL, CIN-ATL, DAL-IND, NYJ-KC, DET-MIABlock 2: CLE-NO, NYG-PHI, LAR-WAS, DEN-CAR, HOU-LACBlock 3: LV-SF, GB-NE, ARI-SEA, TB-CHI, BUF-MIN“The Outlook” will give you the details, stats, analysis, recommendations and everything else you need to make informed fantasy football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team will be profiled in this article. We want everyone reading this to bring home championships in their fantasy leagues!I’m incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season, and I hope you enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social) or tag me in a post with any lineup questions. I’ll do my best to answer them for you.Let’s get into it!All game and implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Thursday for LV-SF, GB-NE, ARI-SEA, TB-CHI and BUF-MIN.Teams on Bye in Week 9:Teams on bye in Week 8: Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee TitansLas Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ersFavorite: 49ers -10Game Total: 51.5Implied Point Total: 49ers 30.75, Raiders 20.75Raiders Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: QB Kirk Cousins, TE Brock BowersRaiders RBsIn a development expected by everybody (nobody), Mike Washington Jr. ended up with 25 carries to Ashton Jeanty’s TWO in Week 8 against the Jets. Jeanty finished with five touches overall. People thought it was a benching, but it looks like head coach Klint Kubiak is going to take things week by week with both of these backs. A vibes-based backfield, if you will. This backfield feels very much like Washington is a bit like J.K. Dobbins in that he can get the yards given to him, but you’re probably not getting much else from him. Meanwhile, Jeanty is in the R.J. Harvey role, with much more juice and clearly a better rushing profile when he gets carries. With high-value touches headed Jeanty’s way and some of the low-value touches headed Washington’s way, that still skews the fantasy value toward Jeanty. Washington finished with 83 rushing yards and no receiving involvement, so the backfield does seem clearly defined, at the very least.Fantasy Advice: I’m going to value them just like the Dobbins-Harvey split, so Jeanty would have starting priority over Washington, but both are ultimately flex plays against San Francisco.49ers Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle49ers WRsMike Evans and Deebo Samuel have been ruled out for Week 9, so we’re looking at a mix of Jordan Watkins, Christian Kirk, Brandin Cooks, Jacob Cowing and potentially Demarcus Robinson if he returns and is activated from IR this week. No player stands out above the others, although Cooks (81%) and Watkins (71%) ran the most routes in the team’s last game before the bye in Week 7. It’s just really difficult for me to get to the point of starting any of these guys when Kyle Shanahan has historically condensed target volume among the core players when others are injured.Fantasy Advice: I’m hands-off all of the 49ers wide receivers this week.Green Bay Packers at New England PatriotsFavorite: Patriots -3Game Total: 47.5Implied Point Total: Patriots 25.25, Packers 22.25Packers Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: WR Christian Watson, WR Matthew GoldenQB Jordan LoveWith no game worse than QB20 this season, Jordan Love has proved himself to be worth the squeeze as a fantasy starter. With 40+ pass attempts in 5-of-8 games, including each of his last three, Love is finally marrying efficiency with volume. The chocolate and peanut butter of fantasy production, if you will. As long as the Packers have Watson and Golden active, you’re starting Love in your fantasy lineups.Fantasy Advice: Love gets the Patriots this week in Foxborough, and New England is just middle of the road when it comes to defending the pass, so fire up Love as a low-end QB1 this week.RB Josh JacobsWhile Jacobs has been putrid on the ground with 32 carries for 75 yards, he has made up for it with receiving work and touchdowns. With three scores and 11 receptions for 68 yards, Jacobs has been a top-10 back in both weeks since being removed from the Commissioner’s Exempt List. I’m just not sure how much the receiving work is going to hold, but if the Packers are going to run Jacobs up the middle with ample opportunities, then he’s obviously going to pay off in some way for fantasy football.Fantasy Advice: Treat Jacobs as a touchdown-dependent, volume-based RB2 against the Patriots in Week 9.TE Tucker KraftKraft is firmly inside the trio of Watson, Golden and Kraft when it comes to the Packers’ target concentration most weeks. In Week 8 against Carolina, that trio totaled 21 receptions, with just three going to other players. Kraft was right there with the wide receivers, finishing as TE6 with a 6-53 line and a touchdown on six targets. That’s touchdowns in two straight games, and Kraft has started to provide some of the ceiling we were aching for in the early part of the season.Fantasy Advice: Even with the Patriots proving solid against opposing tight ends, Kraft is a near-automatic start in Week 9 with the way this Packers offense is slinging the ball.Patriots Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: QB Drake MayeRB Rhamondre StevensonThe mystery illness affecting TreVeyon Henderson seems likely to keep him out of Week 9’s home game against the Packers, so it’ll likely be Corey Kiner mopping up for Stevenson. Stevenson saw 19 of 30 running back carries in Week 8 against the Dolphins, gaining 82 yards on the ground. He’s had the high-value touches on lockdown with Henderson removed from the equation. Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing backfields, so a ton of volume is on tap for Stevenson. With a good matchup, you’re slotting him into your lineup this week.Fantasy Advice: Stevenson isn’t the sexiest name out there, but with some of the receiving options banged up for New England, the Patriots may just decide to ride Stevenson against the Packers. He’s a mid-range RB2 with upside in this game.Arizona Cardinals at Seattle SeahawksFavorite: Seahawks -8.5Game Total: 39.5Implied Point Total: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 15.5Cardinals Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: TE Trey McBrideRB Tyler AllgeierAllgeier might be the last Arizona Cardinals running back left standing, so by the magic of the word “default,” Allgeier is going to get a ton of work against the Seahawks. Jeremiyah Love was placed on IR, and Bam Knight was ruled out for Week 9 with a concussion. If Allgeier can do what he did last week against the Cowboys (147 rushing yards, five receptions for 44 yards and two total touchdowns) against the Seahawks this week, they’ll be cooking with gas. While another overall RB1 week is likely not in the cards for Allgeier, the Seahawks are starting Drew Lock, so they could be in this game with a real shot. Allgeier is going to be a huge key here, so he’s well worth slotting into your lineups this week.Fantasy Advice: Allgeier should get massive volume as a mid-range RB2, with only journeyman back Evan Hull behind him.WR Michael WilsonWe know Wilson has been due for weeks to grab massive volume, and that certainly manifested against the Cowboys with 15 targets and an 8-111 line plus a touchdown to finish as WR4 overall for the week. The calculus is a little tougher moving forward, as Jacoby Brissett was benched and traded to the Ravens, so Gardner Minshew will be the starting quarterback for now. We’ll see if the targets will be heavily consolidated to Wilson and McBride as they were in Week 8. If Minshew can keep that up, we’re good as fantasy managers.Fantasy Advice: Wilson has a tough test with the likelihood of Devon Witherspoon lining up across from him, but volume should help get Wilson to WR3 status this week.Seahawks Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: WR Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawks RBsIt was new blood in the Seattle backfield, but the tandem of Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet still has some rust to shake off in the coming weeks. Price, who came off IR after missing the last four games with a chest injury, led the Seahawks in carries. However, he managed just 2.9 yards per carry. Charbonnet, who came off the PUP list after ending last season’s playoffs with a torn ACL, totaled just 29 yards on nine touches. As far as a backfield split goes, Charbonnet should handle most of the high-value touches, while Price should get looks in close but also take a solid amount of the low-value “between the 20s” touches. It’s very much a work in progress here with the Seahawks, but they’ve got to figure things out because their offense cannot be “Oops, all Jaxon Smith-Njigba.”Fantasy Advice: I’d be OK with starting both Seahawks backs as flex plays, but in a Minshew-versus-Lock matchup, it doesn’t seem like either team will have a decided advantage. Neutral game scripts seem likely to rule the day for both teams in Week 9.Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago BearsFavorite: Bears -6Game Total: 47.5Implied Point Total: Bears 26.75, Buccaneers 20.75Buccaneers Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: NoneWR Emeka EgbukaEgbuka has missed two games in the Bucs’ lineup because of a concussion and foot injury, but he’s going to come back to the lineup like Donald Glover came back with the pizza and found his house on fire. Baker Mayfield has averaged seven passing attempts per game over his last two games. That’s not a typo. I’m sure there will be more pass attempts in this game against the Bears, but the Buccaneers’ passing game has been so hit or miss this season. Egbuka has been central to that, as he’s been very inefficient this season when he HAS played. Even then, he had two straight top-20 fantasy finishes before getting hurt, so maybe he was rounding into form and his injury woes derailed that? Egbuka is without a doubt the best receiver and pass-catcher the Buccaneers have, so he’s the only one here worth a start.Fantasy Advice: I would give some pause with Egbuka this week, but not enough to outright fade him against the Bears. He’s a flex play if he makes his return to the Tampa Bay lineup in Week 9.Bears Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: QB Caleb Williams, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Luther Burden III, TE Colston LovelandWR Rome OdunzeLast week, I called Odunze “the Ringo Starr” of this offense, and he went out and had one of his better games of the season in Week 8, with four receptions for 87 yards. He hit a handful of chunk plays for the Bears outside of the target volume Burden and Loveland generated against the Seahawks. The trio of Burden, Odunze and Loveland consolidated targets to a huge degree, accounting for 72% of the targets. That said, Odunze’s fantasy profile is a bit hollow, as he tends to get lost in the shuffle at times in this offense. It’s just a LOT of target competition for Odunze, especially for somebody who is a good but not elite player.Fantasy Advice: Odunze is really just a flex option at this point, and given Tampa’s strength against fantasy wide receivers, he’s not a particularly strong flex option at that.Buffalo Bills at Minnesota VikingsFavorite: Bills -3Game Total: 44.5Implied Point Total: Bills 23.75, Vikings 20.75Bills Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook IIIBills Pass-catchersI’m combining everybody in here because everybody seems to be banged up for the Bills. DJ Moore’s banged-up shoulder has kept him on the injury report for weeks, but he led the team with seven targets and put up a 4-82-1 line in Buffalo’s blowout of the Ravens. Dalton Kincaid had a similar 4-86-1 line on six targets, and even Khalil Shakir came through with a perfectly usable 5-64-0 as those three caught more than half of the team’s targets in a rare bout of concentration for the Bills’ pass-catchers. Both Kincaid (chest) and Keon Coleman (shoulder) are nursing injuries this week, so these Bills offensive players warrant monitoring this weekend to make sure they’ll be suiting up for Monday Night Football in Minnesota.Fantasy Advice: It’s very early in the week with the game on Monday, but as long as these three start, they’re all going to be viable fantasy options against the blitz-happy Vikings in Week 9. Moore is a solid WR2 option, while Kincaid is a low-end TE1 who is much closer to harkening back to his early-season production than he was weeks earlier. Shakir is a PPR-focused flex play.Vikings Fantasy NotesMust-Start Players: WR Justin JeffersonVikings RBsThere’s a reason why the Vikings are the favorite to land Jonathan Taylor from the Colts if he were to be traded. Both Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones are pretty lackluster in terms of dynamism and breaking off big runs to help this offense flow better. There were just 14 running back carries in this game, with Mason (8-20) taking the bulk and Jones (5-22) cleaning things up. For Mason, it could just be the accumulation of injuries. For Jones, it could simply be his age and the number of touches he has accumulated throughout his career. The Vikings could get a little more pass-happy with Carson Wentz taking over starting duties from the injured Kyler Murray, as the Vikings lost their first game of the season. A lot could change between now and next Tuesday afternoon when the NFL trade deadline arrives.Fantasy Advice: Both Mason and Jones are just low-end flex plays when the Vikings host the Bills. Even in a good matchup against Buffalo, this split, with DeeJay Dallas also taking snaps, is not exactly ideal.TE T.J. HockensonSay what you want about Hockenson being a forgotten asset at tight end during fantasy drafts in August and September, but he’s been pretty damn solid this season, with four weeks of TE10-or-better production, including his last two games. It’s been a bit touchdown-heavy with the scoring, but hey, points are points and utilization is utilization. Buffalo is smack-dab in the middle when it comes to allowing fantasy points to tight ends, so with Wentz steering the ship in Week 9, it’s possible that we could see some pass volume rise in this offense. If so, Hockenson will be one of the key beneficiaries here.Fantasy Advice: Hockenson is right on the borderline between starter and streamer, but he’s certainly not the worst starter if you need to plug a tight end into your lineup for Week 9.This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook - Week 9 (LV-SF, GB-NE, ARI-SEA, TB-CHI, BUF-MIN)