Searching for Excitement in the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - DECEMBER 07: A general overall aerial view of Michigan Stadium and Crisler Center on the University of Michigan campus, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023, in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Kirby Lee/Getty Images) | Getty Images Saturday’s annual matchup between Michigan State and Michigan (7:30 PM ET, Peacock) features two teams whose play might be described as lackluster and two unhappy fanbases, some of whom may have already moved on to basketball and hockey season. The Spartans (2-6, 0-5 Big Ten) enter the rivalry game coming off their bye week but on a six game losing streak while Michigan (5-3, 2-3) barely escaped Rutgers in their last game. Join the conversation!Sign up for a user account and get:Improved notifications system!Fewer adsCreate community postsComment on articles, community postsRec comments, community postsDownload the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.So, is there reason to care about Saturday’s outcome? People will decide for themselves but I would argue yes for a couple of reasons. First, I had the opportunity to take in Michigan State’s last game at UCLA from a field perspective. As we know, the Spartans suffered more injuries to key players in this one, including defensive lineman Ben Roberts going down with a knee injury. Despite this, Roberts returned to the sideline, on crutches, and was engaged for the rest of the contest. When MSU was called for a personal foul, Roberts was screaming at the officials just like the coaches were. Roberts clearly still cares, as I think the Spartan team does. Of course we all wish things were going better but, from what I could tell at UCLA, this team is going to continue to work through adversity.Second, a Spartan win would be an obvious highlight in a tough season while absolutely destroying the Wolverines’ year. While this game should mean more than this, it’s the reality of the situation this year. But can the Spartans actually pull this off? Let’s take a look at some of the key storylines and a possible path to a Spartan victory in Ann Arbor. First year coachesPat Fitzgerald and Kyle Whittingham will be on opposing sidelines for the first time as MSU and UM coaches. Fitzgerald’s team has underperformed record-wise, as pre-season expectations seemed to center around a 6-6 record and making a bowl game. At 2-6, Michigan State will have to win out for this to happen. Michigan is certainly in a better spot at 5-3 but Whittingham appears to be struggling to win over the Wolverines’ fans. He has even drawn comparisons to former MSU head coach Jonathan Smith as a coach from a different part of the country who fails to understand UM’s rivalries with the Spartans and Ohio State. Some reports even indicate that Whittingham won’t make it past this year as Michigan’s coach. Fitzgerald meanwhile, has roots in the Midwest and Big Ten and has embraced this rivalry from the beginning, saying it “just means more”. First year starting quarterbacksMichigan moved on from former number one recruit Bryce Underwood to true freshman Tommy Carr midway through the Wolverines’ game against Penn State on October 17. UM trailed the Nittany Lions 3-0 at halftime but Carr sparked the struggling Wolverines’ offense in the second half and led Michigan to a 21-18 victory.Carr only threw seven passes in that game, completing five for 47 yards. This was a big improvement, however, from Underwood going 5-11 for 43 yards and two interceptions in the first half. Carr also ran four times for 36 yards and a touchdown in the Penn State win.After rallying the Wolverines against Penn State, Michigan turned to Carr again the next week as they faced defending national champion Indiana but Carr found the going much tougher against the Hoosiers. He completed 20 of 32 passes but the completions went for just 167 yards. Carr also didn’t get any help from the run game as Michigan managed just 57 yards on 42 carries against Indiana’s stout defense as UM fell 13-6 in overtime. Michigan stuck with Carr last week against Rutgers though, and he responded. The freshman accounted for three of the Wolverines’ four touchdowns (one passing, two rushing) while completing 22 of 27 passes for 266 yards and adding 54 rushing yards on 12 carries. Carr led touchdown drives of 92, 75, 75, and 75 yards as Michigan possessed the ball for 39 minutes against the Scarlett Knights.While Carr appears to now be the clear starter for Michigan, MSU’s situation may be less clear. Due to an undisclosed injury, first year starter Alessio Milivojevic gave way to freshman Kayd Coffman at UCLA. Redshirt freshman Leo Hannan also saw action against the Bruins. Spartans’ backup quarterback, and the signal caller on the roster with by far the most experience, sixth year player Cam Fancher, has been out since suffering an injury at Wisconsin on October 3. So, the Spartans’ starting quarterback on Saturday is likely to be Milivojevic, Coffman, or Hannan. While some may argue that, with a bowl game unlikely, Michigan State should continue to develop Coffman or Hannan, it is Milivojevic who probably gives the Spartans the best chance to win, if he can go. Struggling offensesThe Michigan offense with Underwood may be the root of the Wolverines’ struggles this year. UM scored 52 points in a September 19 win against UTEP but, in five full games with Underwood, this was the only time Michigan put more than 20 on the scoreboard. Against Western Michigan, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Minnesota, the Wolverines averaged just 13.25 points per game. It was unclear after the Indiana loss if things would improve with Carr but, unfortunately for MSU, he may be hitting his stride just in time for the rivalry game. Sadly for Spartan fans, MSU has been rowing against a strong current offensively as well. Michigan State scored 37 in an overtime loss to Illinois but have managed just managed just 11.4 points per game against Notre Dame, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and UCLA. As Carr and the Wolverines are probably looking forward to facing an injury-depleted Michigan State defense, the Spartans need to figure out how to score against a stout Michigan defense while possibly playing with a freshman quarterback.Key matchup: MSU O vs UM DFor all of Michigan’s struggles on offense, their defense has been excellent. Michigan allows just 16.4 points, 99.4 rushing yards, and 150.6 passing yards per game. The 250 total yards puts UM first in the Big Ten and third in the nation. For comparison, Michigan State has allowed 25.8 points and 355.1 yards per game.However, this is better than the Rutgers defense which ranks last in the Big Ten by giving up 32.6 points per game. The Scarlett Knights are also near the bottom in allowing 418 total yards. Michigan had to grind it out with four long drives against Rutgers and the Knights couldn’t force a turnover. On defense, the Spartans are probably going to give up some plays to Carr and Co. but they must do a couple of things Rutgers couldn’t – force some Michigan field goal attempts and get a couple of turnovers.The real question in this game is if MSU can move the ball and score against the Wolverine D. We may be able to look again at the UM-Rutgers tape for some hope.Rutgers scored 21 against Michigan – the most points anyone has put up on the Wolverines this year. The Scarlett Knights had four scoring drives – two touchdowns (one with a two-point conversion) and two field goals.The field goal drives were sustained, with one going 10 plays for 47 yards and the other seven for 56. The TD drivers, however, both featured big plays. Rutgers scored on an 80 yard pass in the second quarter and their fourth quarter touchdown was sparked by a 54 yard run.Rutgers did this with a backup quarterback who completed just three of 12 passes. Despite the complete lack of a passing game (except for the 80 yard TD) and possessing the ball for only 21 minutes, Rutgers ran for 126 yards on nearly five yards per carry against Michigan.Rutgers’ two big offensive plays seemed to feature a combination of good luck for them, bad luck for Michigan, and the ability to take advantage of UM’s aggressiveness on defense. On the pass, it looked like Michigan was in aggressive man coverage, one of their defensive backs slipped, and there was no safety help. The Rutgers QB was able to get the ball out just in time and hit the opening.With the run, a cutback by the Rutgers back took advantage of Michigan’s aggressive pursuit for the big gain to the UM three yard line.For the Spartans to win on Saturday, they probably can’t rely on executing long drives, possibly with a freshman quarterback. Instead, they may need to mimic Rutgers’ big play success. To do so, the MSU offensive line is going to need to hold up against UM’s aggressive, downhill attack. The Spartans may also need to keep a tight end and running back back in max pass blocking protection and see if a receiver can get just enough space in a one-on-one matchup. This will be a real challenge with cornerback Jyaire Hill in the defensive backfield for Michigan but UM plays their DBs on an island, where one mistake can lead to a big play. The Spartans will need to find a way to beat this coverage a time or two on Saturday night. Not many will give the Spartans a chance but this not the best Michigan football team and the Wolverines are going through some turmoil of their own. What do you think TOC, can Spartans pull the upset to provide some hope and, if so, how do they do it?