Pros and Cons: Should the Mets sign Tarik Skubal?

With free agency underway, speculation surrounding ace left-hander Tarik Skubal will morph into actual negotiations, as a handful of teams look to land him.In addition to the Mets and Dodgers, there are a bunch of other teams who have a need for Skubal and a potential willingness to spend what it takes to get him.The Angels, finally close to being free of meddling owner Arte Moreno, will have new owner Stan Kroenke (and his estimated $27.6 billion net worth) officially taking over in early 2027, pending MLB approval. While the Angels could conceivably go after Skubal, it's fair to wonder how open he would be to signing there given the ownership transition, unsettled situations at GM and manager, and the fact that they haven't had a winning season since 2015. The Cubs have a need and ownership with deep pockets, but also must rebuild almost their entire starting rotation -- with Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, and Shota Imanaga all free agents. Given how much pitching they need to add, would they be comfortable spending big on Skubal?The upstart White Sox could also make sense for Skubal, but the biggest free agent contract they've ever given out is the five-year, $75 million deal they signed Andrew Benintendi to in 2023. So Chicago inking Skubal would relatively shocking.Skubal's first team, the Tigers, are obviously a fit. But they lowballed him when it came to extension offers before he was traded. The Yankees could always go nuts and add another ace to their elite rotation, but that seems unlikely given their current deals to starting pitchers Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon, as well as other big contracts on the books for Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. Hal Steinbrenner's recent comments about being in favor of a salary cap should also be considered here.Could the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Padres try for Skubal? Maybe. But this really does seem like something that could come down to the Mets and Dodgers.While the Dodgers are swimming in cash, owner Mark Walterhas been accused of insurance fraud, recently sold his majority stake in the Lakers, and has been attempting to sell the Sparks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is loaded with starting pitching options and could be reluctant to hand a megadeal to Skubal -- even if Walter's finances don't become a major issue.With all that to consider, how seriously should the Mets pursue Skubal? Here are the pros and cons... Aug 28, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers in the third inning at Comerica Park. / Lon Horwedel - Imagn Images PROSSkubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, having posted a 2.47 ERA (2.42 FIP) and 0.92 WHIP with 757 strikeouts in 626.1 innings (a strikeout rate of 10.9 per nine) in 103 starts since 2023, which was his age-26 season.For the Tigers and Dodgers in 2026, Skubal had a 2.72 ERA (2.51 FIP) and 0.96 WHIP while fanning 186 batters in 158.2 innings over 26 starts.Skubal's arsenal is electric, with him primarily featuring a four-seam fastball that averaged 96.8 mph this past season, as well as a dominant changeup, sinker, and slider.In 2026, Skubal's stuff unsurprisingly rated near the top of the league, with his overall pitching run value in the 97th percentile. When it comes to how hitters performed against each pitch, none of Skubal's offerings resulted in a slugging percentage higher than .373 (or an xSLG higher than .372). Meanwhile, his vaunted changeup had an absurd whiff percentage of 46.9. Looking at Skubal's other metrics, literally all of them except for extension were between well above average and elite this past season, including his xERA, average exit velocity against, chase percentage, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage -- which was in the 99th percentile. While Skubal is overpowering, he also has elite command, posting BB/9 rates of 1.6 or lower each of the last four seasons. When it comes to fit, the Mets have a glaring need for Skubal or another pitcher who is a legitimate ace. But Skubal is the only true ace who is available. Putting him atop a rotation that should also include Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and perhaps another external addition, would be a game-changer for New York. Looking elsewhere on the free agent market for other potential big-ticket additions, there really aren't many. Starting pitchers Michael King and Clay Holmes could be pricey in terms of average annual value, but won't get the kind of lengthy deal Skubal could command. Teruaki Sato, who is being posted by his Japanese club, could get a relatively big deal. But even if the Mets sign Skubal, they would theoretically be able to add Sato and/or another legitimate starting pitcher. So there's no reason to be hesitant. While the Mets already have roughly $281 million committed to the payroll for the 2027 season (if Bo Bichette opts in), they are going to get serious relief after next season, with Sean Manaea ($22 million), Jorge Polanco ($20 million), and Kodai Senga ($15 million) coming off the books. Also off the books will be the $6 million the club is still paying Luke Weaver for 2027 following his trade to the Pirates. Then, ahead of the 2029 season, the Mets have roughly $90 million set to come off, reducing their overall obligations to around $106 million. Given the coming payroll relief and the influx of young, relatively inexpensive players (including McLean, Scott, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and Zac Thornton), the Mets are in strong position to absorb the kind of massive payroll obligation Skubal's contract will be. There's also the fact that David Stearns seems to be in a make-or-break offseason, and could certainly use a bold and potentially tenure-defining move over the next few months -- even if it might come with some prodding from owner Steve Cohen. Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws a pitch in the first inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Monday, Sept. 14, 2026. / USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect CONSThe biggest concern when it comes to a megadeal for Skubal or any other pitcher revolves around health.Skubal's 2026 campaign was briefly interrupted by NanoScope surgery on his pitching elbow that kept him out of action from April 30 through June 13. But he continued to be dominant upon his return. After having a 2.70 ERA (2.11 FIP) over his first seven starts, Skubal had a 2.73 ERA (2.66 FIP) in the 19 starts he made post-surgery, with 10 of them coming after he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline.While Skubal seems to be out of the woods, he has had serious elbow issues in the past. Skubal had Tommy John surgery while in college in 2017 and underwent flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022. If he eventually needs to have a second Tommy John surgery, it's fair to wonder what kind of pitcher he would be on the other side of it. Even if Skubal avoids a catastrophic injury during the length of his next contract, he'll be facing an uphill battle to live up to it simply because of the amount of long-term deals for starting pitchers that have gone haywire. For every long-term, big-money deal to a pitcher 29 or older that works out (Max Scherzer's seven-year deal with the Nationals looks incredible in retrospect, and the Yankees' deal for Max Fried is aging well), you can point to a whole bunch that didn't or currently aren't (Patrick Corbin, Jacob deGrom, Jordan Zimmermann, Felix Hernandez, Corbin Burnes).Putting Skubal's potential health and performance to the side for a second, it's probably generally wise to avoid deals for starting pitchers that could go as high as his -- an eight-year deal for around $350 million wouldn't be surprising. There's also the pending expiration of the CBA and expected lockout to consider. But there are two reasons why that shouldn't be as big of a deal as some are making it. For one, it's hard to believe the players will bend on a salary cap. Even if they do, any cap would take years to implement, which means it would somewhat disingenuous for any team to cite labor uncertainty as a reason for not pursuing Skubal or other players. VERDICTSign him.Ahead of his age-30 season, it feels probable that Skubal's contract will not soar into the stratosphere when it comes to years. As is noted above, an eight-year deal would be reasonable and end when Skubal is 37 years old. Maybe the Mets could go even higher with the average annual value in order to get it down to six or seven years, which would obviously be more in line with Stearns' philosophy -- even if it would still require him to go outside his comfort zone.Either way, the stars seem to be aligning for the Mets to make a strong push for Skubal. They need to close the deal.