Pro Picks: Bills will beat the Vikings in Monday night showdown between 6-1 teams

Something has to give when the NFL’s highest-scoring offense faces the league’s stingiest defense.Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills lead the league in scoring at 33.3 points per game. The Minnesota Vikings are giving up the fewest points at 13.3.The two 6-1 teams meet Monday night in a prime-time showdown.The Bills won’t need to reach the 30s against Minnesota’s pedestrian offense that ranks 29th in yards (279.4) and 27th in scoring (20.0). But Carson Wentz could give the Vikings an offensive jolt if Kyler Murray can’t play because of a hamstring issue.The Bills are 3½-point favorites on the road. Pro Picks likes Buffalo.BILLS: 23-17JACKSONVILLE (5-2) at BALTIMORE (4-4)Line: Jaguars minus 9½The Jaguars have a comfortable lead in the division and face an overmatched opponent missing Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley. Undrafted rookie QB Joe Fagnano will make his first career start for the Ravens and possibly his last following a trade for Jacoby Brissett. Handing the ball off to Derrick Henry 40 times seems like a sound strategy but Jacksonville has the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. Baltimore hasn’t covered the spread in five straight games.JAGUARS: 26-13CINCINNATI (5-2) vs. ATLANTA (3-5), in Madrid, SpainLine: Bengals minus 3Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 20 touchdown passes and the Bengals have scored more than 30 points in three straight games — all wins. But their defense gave up 36 against the lowly Titans last week. The inconsistent Falcons beat the Packers and 49ers but were shut out by a team that didn’t complete a pass last week. Bijan Robinson leads the NFL with 780 yards rushing. Michael Penix Jr. threw a career-high four picks against Tampa Bay. The Bengals are 1-4 against the spread over the last five games.BENGALS: 27-20CLEVELAND (5-3) at NEW ORLEANS (2-5)Line: Saints minus 2½Deshaun Watson ran out of comebacks and the Browns were routed by the Steelers. Watson entered concussion protocol on Wednesday so Shedeur Sanders would start if he can’t play. The Saints are winless at home (0-3) and coming off a bye after losing to Pittsburgh in France. QB Tyler Shough followed up an excellent performance in a road win over the Giants with a 30-for-38 game in the loss to the Steelers.SAINTS: 20-17DALLAS (3-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (2-6)Line: Cowboys minus 5½Dallas blew a 14-point lead late against Arizona and pressure is on coach Brian Schottenheimer. The Cowboys still have a shot in a wide-open NFC East but their defense has to play better. The Colts are looking ahead to 2027 and eyeing more moves ahead of next week’s trade deadline. Jonathan Taylor will possibly play his final game for Indianapolis. Colts are 0-4 ATS in the last four games.COWBOYS: 27-23DENVER (6-2) at CAROLINA (3-4)Line: Broncos minus 2½Bo Nix led another comeback and Denver keeps finding ways to win late. The Broncos have to put together a complete game. The Panthers are reeling and fired their defensive coordinator after two straight losses. Bryce Young struggled in both of those games after a hot start. Denver has covered four straight games.BRONCOS: 23-19DETROIT (5-2) at MIAMI (1-6)Line: Lions minus 7Detroit’s defense made significant improvements during a three-game winning streak, allowing just 17.7 points per game. But the Lions have lost key players to injury, including All-Pro linebacker Jack Campbell. The Dolphins made things tough for the Patriots and covered the spread last week. Small victories for a rebuilding team.LIONS: 26-20LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-4) at WASHINGTON (2-4-1)Line: Rams minus 5The Rams could finally have Myles Garrett back to bolster a defense that was expected to be dominant with the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year and Aaron Donald’s return. They have to take advantage against inferior opponents before the schedule gets much harder. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders beat up on depleted Philadelphia but face a more difficult challenge this time.RAMS: 26-17NEW YORK GIANTS (4-2-1) at PHILADELPHIA (2-6)Line: Giants minus 3 ½J.J. McCarthy vs. Joe Milton III. Two quarterbacks who were on other teams at the start of the season face off. The Giants got McCarthy from the Vikings after losing Jaxson Dart and he’s helped them to the top of the NFC East. The Eagles have lost six in a row and are turning to Milton, who was signed off Dallas’ practice squad after Jalen Hurt was placed on injured reserve last month.EAGLES: 23-22NEW YORK JETS (2-6) at KANSAS CITY (5-2)Line: Chiefs minus 9½The Jets don’t have a chance against a Chiefs team that’s coming off two losses and trying to get back on track. New York has to focus on stockpiling picks before next week’s trade deadline. Kansas City needs a receiver to help Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III after losses to Seattle and Denver exposed their weaknesses.BEST BET: CHIEFS: 27-13HOUSTON (2-5) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (0-7)Line: Texans minus 4½The underachieving Texans have no margin for error after starting 0-4. C.J. Stroud has played well but a talented defense has been the biggest issue. The Chargers are having a disastrous season. Justin Herbert’s regression is stunning. They’re also 0-7 ATS.TEXANS: 20-17LAS VEGAS (4-4) at SAN FRANCISCO (6-1)Line: 49ers minus 10Kirk Cousins is second in the NFL with 19 TD passes and the Raiders got the run game going last week behind Mike Washington. The 49ers are coming off a bye following their first loss and needed some time away for injured players to heal up. It may not have been long enough. Christian McCaffrey opened the practice week questionable along with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa.49ERS: 27-20ARIZONA (3-5) at SEATTLE (4-4)Line: Seahawks minus 12½The Cardinals have Minshew Mania after Gardner Minshew led a stunning comeback at Dallas. But Seattle’s defense is much tougher and they’ll be motivated after giving up 34 points to the Bears. The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks are turning to Drew Lock again with Sam Darnold dealing with an injury. They need their run game to get going.SEAHAWKS: 23-14GREEN BAY (5-3) at NEW ENGLAND (5-3)Line: Patriots minus 3Micah Parsons is nearing a return that will be a major boost for a defense that’s been playing well. If Green Bay starts to run the ball better, that’ll help Jordan Love and a potent passing attack. Drake Maye and the Patriots need a healthy A.J. Brown to have a chance to repeat in the AFC. Brown is dealing with a knee injury and didn’t play last week.UPSET SPECIAL: PACKERS: 24-23TAMPA BAY (3-5) at CHICAGO (6-2)Line: Bears minus 6The Buccaneers became the first team to play an entire game without completing a pass and still won thanks to 324 yards rushing against Atlanta. The Bears’ addition of All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons already paid off vs. Seattle, and he’ll face a resurgent offensive line and run game. Baker Mayfield will have to keep up with Caleb Williams and Chicago’s potent offense. It’ll benefit Tampa Bay that Chicago has a short week after a road game in Seattle.BEARS: 27-22Last week: Straight up: 11-3. Against spread: 10-4Overall: Straight up: 75-45-1. Against spread: 66-52-3.Best Bet: Straight up: 5-3. Against spread: 4-4.Upset Special: Straight up: 3-5. Against spread: 3-5.___See AP’s full NFL coverage here