MLB's lockout is coming. How it impacts Reds, Elly De La Cruz, fans

The Cincinnati Reds’ competitive task this winter was already tough enough after their 75-87, last-place face plant in the National League Central this year.A labor lockout by owners looms with the 11:59 p.m. Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, and that not only will immediately freeze all MLB business − including free agency a month into the process − but also threatens to delay spring training and maybe even the 2027 regular season.If you don’t believe the owners and commissioner Rob Manfred are prepared for a lengthy battle over a long-sought salary cap, you weren’t listening when Manfred spoke to reporters during an all-small-market World Series that seemed to belie the owners’ parity argument.Manfred actually used the Milwaukee Brewers-Tampa Bay Rays matchup as fuel for the argument (or, some suggest, the gaslighting).“I think it shows that we leave a lot on the table in some of our smaller markets by not having them have an opportunity to compete on a regular basis," Manfred said in Milwaukee before Game 1. “The Brewers have been a well-run franchise forever. It's been 40 years since we're here. Once every 40 years is not enough.”Bruce Meyer, the head of the players union, reiterated the union’s long-held position on the matter in an ESPN report during the Series: “The salary cap is the opposite of competition. …The results of these playoffs obviously further undermine their argument for why they think they want it. But, again, that’s not the reason they want it.”Conversations with dozens of players over the past two seasons suggest the rank-and-file remains galvanized on an issue that has been considered a non-starter by players since Marvin Miller led the union during its formative decades more than a generation ago.What does it all mean for the Reds and MLB fans, and what comes next?Any chance a lockout will be avoided?No. Not unless Lloyd Christmas is doing the math. It would take a stunning, unforeseeable reversal of intent by owners and their proxy, Manfred, for that not to happen. When asked in July by The Enquirer whether owners would actually risk a shutdown of any length for a cap, given the long-term damage from the 1994-95 shutdown, Manfred launched into a 176-word set of talking points:“I believe that in order for this game to reach its full potential we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we’re about: That is competitive balance. We need to make sure that fans and markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win. …”When he finally finished in the same vein, without answering the question, during that media conference, he was then asked: “So that means ‘yes’?”He ignored the followup.Wait. Fans are clamoring for a salary cap?Not exactly. Manfred’s talking points almost always are framed to make it appear that fans are asking for a cap.What fans want is for their teams to win. Specifically, to have hope that their teams can win championships. The owners’ messaging suggests a salary cap is the magic pill for that, when, in fact, there is little empirical evidence to suggest that is the answer.They point to the NFL and NBA as examples of leagues with salary caps that have parity, omitting the fact that the NFL, for instance, also has the most comprehensive broadcast revenue sharing system through it’s nationalized TV structure.Isn’t the revenue disparity why the Reds have mostly struggled for 30 years?Not exactly. Teams in smaller markets certainly have revenue-based disadvantages compared to, say, the record-spending Dodgers.But the Brewers just won the World Series despite residing in the smallest television market in MLB. The Rays just played in their third World Series since 2008 despite typically spending far less than the Reds on big-league payroll ($32.6 million less this year). And don’t get us started on what Cleveland has done with less compared to the Reds the last three decades.In fact, sources with knowledge of MLB’s internal revenue and profit comparisons say the Reds are among the most profitable teams in the majors (at least as a function of percentage of revenues).And another source separate from those said the Reds make more money than at least seven other MLB teams.So how big a problem is competitive disparity in MLB?MLB has had more teams win championships than the NFL in recent decades, including 10 different World Series champions in the past 15 seasons – with three franchises winning for the first time in that span. Another nine teams played in the World Series over that 15-year stretch, for a total of nearly two-thirds of the league playing in the final round.And this in a league that qualifies a smaller percentage of its teams for the postseason than the NFL, NBA or NHL.For all the talk of the Dodgers’ dominance, they went 32 years without winning a championship before their run of three in the last seven years.In some ways, the game has never had more parity.Yeah, but wouldn’t a salary cap mean a better chance for the Reds?No. And certainly not unless revenue-sharing were to increase dramatically.A persuasive argument could be made that the Reds aren’t spending enough money now to compete based on their ability to spend – whether on big-league payroll or other competitive endeavors in the organization (tech, scouting, development, etc.). But they did spend more on players than 10 other MLB teams this year and still finished in last place.Consider a cap structure in which the payroll ceiling is $245.3 million and payroll floor $171.2 million (this is MLB’s latest proposal).The Reds ranked 20th in the majors (source: spotrac.com) this season with a payroll of roughly $128 million. What does anyone believe the chances are that they would choose to exceed a required floor that is $43 million beyond this year’s budget. That the Rays or Guardians or even the Brewers would?And if they don’t, that means the Reds are more likely to go from spending more on players than 10 other teams to instead spending at the level of the new floor – in other words, spending at or near a league-low level despite the increase. Doesn’t sound like that fixes any competitive issues the Reds have now.But MLB needs a salary cap for overall competitive health and balance?Again, there is no empirical evidence to back that up.History suggests as much. From 1936 to 1964, the New York Yankees played in 22 of 29 World Series and won 16 of them.Talk about disparity. Think the league could have used a salary cap back then?In fact, they had the most effective salary cap in the history of major league sports at that time: the reserve clause that came with every standard player contract and bound that player to the team year after year at a salary dictated by the club in perpetuity until the club chose to trade or otherwise cut ties with the player.Again, the Yankees may have had the revenue advantage over many others, but every team employed the cost-containment cudgel of the reserve clause.Are there any certain benefits to a salary cap?The only certain outcome of a salary cap: An almost instantaneous spike in franchise values across the league based on the annual cost limit imposed on major-league payrolls.Annual profit margins likely would also go up for many teams.That has shown to be the case in the NBA and NFL, and it seems to be the biggest, real-world reason the owners appear to be so hell-bent on waging a potentially costly labor war in an industry that is closing in on $13 million in annual revenues with attendance and viewership in recent years at all-time highs.All but four of the 30 MLB owners are billionaires. They didn't get that way by deciding that pretty damn rich was good enough.Do Reds fans get anything out of a salary cap?Probably not.First, it's not like any prices for tickets or merchandise will go down because of it.If anything, one of the concessions from owners being floated in the very, very early CBA talks involves allowing players to leverage free agency after five full years of service time instead of six.For the Reds, that means one of the most exciting young superstars in the game, Elly De La Cruz, could be forced into the trade market sooner rather than later by a team that has already tried and failed to extend him. The Reds' 30-30 shortstop has three seasons remaining of club control – with the upcoming seson already in jeopardy of being shortened.So how long could the MLB lockout last?Using the 2021-22 lockout during the last CBA negotiations as a barometer, expect at least a delayed and shortened spring training and at least a short delay to the regular season (the first week was wiped out and rescheduled on the back end).But most insiders expect a much longer shutdown because of the long game the owners appear to have brought to this fight this time around, with rhetoric as strong as it has been in decades and that has included commercials aimed at swaying fan sentiment on the salary cap issue. Most expect a season that winds up being shortened, if not significantly.For smart estimates on the length of this, keep an eye on the money. MLB is poised to start negotiations on new national TV deals once a new CBA is in place in an effort to vastly increase the league packages that have been dwarfed in recent years by even the NBA's latest deal.The Athletic reported that if more than 60 games are lost from the 162-game schedule that the current TV deals will extend at the current prices for an additional year (through 2029).A source with knowledge of those contracts said it was even less than that – that the league is required to deliver 135 of 162 games to avoid that financial hit (they get paid for 2027 under those contracts regardless of games played).Depending on which number is the more accurate, it puts a deadline for starting the season at either roughly the end of April or roughly the end of May. And if the battle wages beyond those markers without resolution, all bets are off how long it might last.This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: MLB's lockout is coming. How it impacts Reds, Elly De La Cruz, fans