How the Utah-BYU rivalry game impacted the latest Big 12 bowl projections

BYU Cougars safety Raider Damuni (3) fails to tackle Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) as he scores a touchdown during a football game at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. | Tess Crowley, Deseret NewsUtah’s 28-20 win over BYU in a top 10 matchup last week has had a trickle-down effect on the Big 12’s College Football Playoff and bowl hopes.How has that close loss impacted the Cougars?In 11 national bowl projections released since the end of Week 10’s college football action, seven of them still have BYU as a CFP participant playing in the first round.Four others, though, have the Cougars playing in the Alamo Bowl.Defending Big 12 champion Texas Tech, after surviving a high-scoring thriller against West Virginia last week, is also receiving some CFP love, with four of those projections pinning the Red Raiders in the playoff.Utah, meanwhile, is unanimously viewed as a CFP participant and likely to earn a first-round bye.Seven of the 11 bowl projections, listed below, have the Utes as the No. 2 seed in the CFP and therefore earning an automatic bye in the quarterfinals.Some even have projected Utah to make its way into either the CFP semifinals or the national championship game.In a look at the Big 12 as a whole, there are currently seven teams in the league that are bowl eligible, with four others that could become bowl eligible this week by winning their sixth game this season.One of those four teams is guaranteed to become bowl eligible this week, as the winner of Saturday’s Arizona State at UCF game will earn its sixth victory.Here’s a look at the latest bowl projections for every Big 12 team following Week 10 of the 2026 season.ESPN, Kyle BonaguraBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 10 seed playing at No. 7 seed Notre DameUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed facing No. 7 seed Notre Dame, bowl TBDNote: Bonagura has Utah beating Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals, beating No. 3 seed Indiana in the CFP semifinals in the Sugar Bowl and facing No. 1 seed Georgia in the CFP national championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Sun Bowl, vs. Virginia TechArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. Fresno StateBaylor: Texas Bowl, vs. MissouriCincinnati: Cactus Bowl, vs. MichiganHouston: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonOklahoma State: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. Wake ForestTexas Tech: CFP first round, No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed UCLAUCF: Liberty Bowl, vs. South CarolinaWest Virginia: Independence Bowl, vs. WashingtonESPN, Mark SchlabachBYU’s bowl projection: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed facing No. 7 seed Tennessee, bowl TBDNote: Schlabach has Utah beating Tennessee in the CFP quarterfinals, beating No. 3 seed Notre Dame in the CFP semifinals in the Orange Bowl and facing No. 1 seed Georgia in the CFP national championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. MissouriArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. San Diego StateBaylor: Texas Bowl, vs. OklahomaCincinnati: Independence Bowl, vs. Oregon StateHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. SMUOklahoma State: Liberty Bowl, vs. AuburnTexas Tech: CFP first round, No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed MiamiUCF: Cactus Bowl, vs. NorthwesternWest Virginia: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. NebraskaOn3, Brett McMurphyBYU’s bowl projection: Alamo Bowl, vs. USCUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed playing No. 7 seed Indiana in the Rose BowlNote: McMurphy has Utah beating Indiana in the CFP quarterfinals and advancing to the CFP semifinals before losing to No. 6 seed Alabama in the Orange Bowl.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Holiday Bowl, vs. DukeArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. Fresno StateBaylor: Liberty Bowl, vs. FloridaCincinnati: Independence Bowl, vs. East CarolinaHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. Wake ForestIowa State: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. UTSAOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. MissouriTexas Tech: CFP first round, No. 10 seed playing at No. 7 seed IndianaUCF: Cactus Bowl, vs. NebraskaWest Virginia: Gasparilla Bowl, vs. MinnesotaThe Athletic, Scott DochtermanBYU’s bowl projection: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed playing winner of No. 8 Texas/No. 9 Wake Forest in the Rose BowlOther Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Holiday Bowl, vs. ClemsonArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. Fresno StateBaylor: Independence Bowl, vs. Oregon StateCincinnati: Birmingham Bowl, vs. MemphisHouston: Texas Bowl, vs. OklahomaIowa State: Cactus Bowl, vs. NebraskaOklahoma State: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. Virginia TechTexas Tech: CFP first round, No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed IndianaUCF: Boca Raton Bowl, vs. South FloridaWest Virginia: Liberty Bowl, vs. MissouriCBS Sports, Brad CrawfordBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed AlabamaUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed facing No. 7 seed UCLA in the Rose BowlOther Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. South CarolinaArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. Fresno StateBaylor: Liberty Bowl, vs. AuburnCincinnati: Cactus Bowl, vs. MichiganHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. SMUOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. MissouriTexas Tech: Alamo Bowl, vs. USCUCF: Independence Bowl, vs. WashingtonWest Virginia: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. ArmyCollege Football News, Pete FiutakBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 10 seed playing at No. 7 seed TennesseeUtah’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 5 seed hosting No. 12 seed Boise StateNote: Fiutak has Utah beating Boise State in the CFP first round and advancing to the CFP quarterfinals before losing to No. 4 seed Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. OklahomaArizona State: Independence Bowl, vs. West VirginiaBaylor: Texas Bowl, vs. MissouriCincinnati: Cactus Bowl, vs. NorthwesternHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. SMUOklahoma State: Liberty Bowl, vs. South CarolinaTexas Tech: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonUCF: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. ArmyWest Virginia: Independence Bowl, vs. Arizona StateAthlon Sports, Steve LassanBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed Notre DameUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed playing No. 7 seed Notre Dame in the Fiesta BowlNote: Lassan has Utah beating Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals and advancing to the CFP semifinals before losing to No. 3 seed Miami in the Orange Bowl.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. South CarolinaArizona State: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. Air ForceBaylor: Cactus Bowl, vs. NebraskaCincinnati: First Responder Bowl, vs. TulsaHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. Wake ForestOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. MissouriTexas Tech: Alamo Bowl, vs. USCUCF: Independence Bowl, vs. East CarolinaWest Virginia: Liberty Bowl, vs. AuburnBryan Fischer, Sports IllustratedBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 11 seed playing at No. 6 seed TennesseeUtah’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 5 seed hosting No. 12 seed Boise StateNote: Fischer has Utah beating Boise State in the CFP first round and advancing to the CFP quarterfinals before losing to No. 41 seed Georgia in the Peach Bowl.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. South CarolinaArizona State: Independence Bowl, vs. Iowa StateBaylor: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. TulsaCincinnati: First Responder Bowl, vs. NorthwesternHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. LouisvilleIowa State: Independence Bowl, vs. Arizona StateOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. OklahomaTexas Tech: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonUCF: Liberty Bowl, vs. MissouriWest Virginia: Cactus Bowl, vs. Penn StateUSA Today, Erick SmithBYU’s bowl projection: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed facing No. 7 seed Indiana in the Cotton BowlNote: Smith has Utah beating Indiana in the CFP quarterfinals and advancing to the CFP semifinals before losing to No. 6 seed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.Other Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. FloridaArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. Oregon StateBaylor: Cactus Bowl, vs. Penn StateCincinnati: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. UTSAHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. LouisvilleKansas State: Independence Bowl, vs. LibertyOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. AuburnUCF: First Responder Bowl, vs. TulsaWest Virginia: Liberty Bowl, vs. MissouriNote: Texas Tech was inadvertently left out of Smith’s bowl projections this week.Palm Brackets, Jerry PalmBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 6 seed hosting No. 11 seed IndianaUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 2 seed playing winner of No. 7 Tennessee/No. 10 Texas in the Cotton BowlOther Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. Penn StateBaylor: Cactus Bowl, vs. NebraskaCincinnati: Salute to Veterans Bowl, vs. UTSAHouston: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonIowa State: First Responder Bowl, vs. James MadisonOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. LSUTexas Tech: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. Wake ForestUCF: Liberty Bowl, vs. Mississippi StateWest Virginia: Independence Bowl, vs. MichiganProjection Sports, Tyler MarkleyBYU’s bowl projection: CFP first round, No. 10 seed playing at No. 7 seed UCLAUtah’s bowl projection: CFP quarterfinals, No. 4 seed playing winner of No. 5 Alabama/No. 12 Boise StateOther Big 12 bowl projectionsArizona: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. Penn StateArizona State: Poinsettia Bowl, vs. New MexicoBaylor: Cactus Bowl, vs. NorthwesternCincinnati: Independence Bowl, vs. LibertyHouston: Pop-Tarts Bowl, vs. Wake ForestIowa State: First Responder Bowl, vs. MinnesotaOklahoma State: Texas Bowl, vs. MissouriTexas Tech: Alamo Bowl, vs. OregonUCF: Armed Forces Bowl, vs. UTSAWest Virginia: Liberty Bowl, vs. Nebraska