Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: 5 things that decide this SEC game

Georgia and Ole Miss square off in a critical Week 10 college football matchup with massive consequences.The reigning SEC champion Bulldogs have one loss, but the Rebels have two and can’t afford a third. What happens here will have a major effect on the shape of the College Football Playoff.Here are five trends we expect will determine who walks off the field a winner.1. Ole Miss puts the game in Trinidad Chambliss’ handsOle Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been one of the SEC’s most productive offensive players, leading the conference with 2,189 passing yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s also added seven rushing touchdowns.Georgia’s defense allows just 14.9 points per game, ranking top 15 nationally.Expect Georgia’s pass rush and secondary to credibly test Chambliss’ long-range passing ambitions. His ability to extend plays and create offense with his legs could be critical.2. Georgia establishes its running gameSep 26, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) throws a pass intended for running back Chauncey Bowens (5) against the Oklahoma Sooners during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)Georgia averages 200.1 rushing yards per game, ranking third nationally. Ole Miss is one of the SEC’s worst run defenses, allowing 148.9 yards on average.The Bulldogs have several capable running backs, including Dwight Phillips Jr. and Bo Walker, particularly with injuries affecting the running back rotation.If Georgia controls the line of scrimmage, it can dictate tempo, keep Chambliss on the sideline and make life difficult for the Ole Miss defense.More: Bold predictions for college football’s biggest Week 10 games3. Kewan Lacy’s absence hurts Ole MissOle Miss running back Kewan Lacy is unlikely to play because of a shoulder injury, according to head coach Pete Golding.That puts additional pressure on Makhi Frazier and Shekai Mills-Knight to provide production.Georgia ranks second nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 86 yards per game. Without Lacy, establishing a consistent running game becomes an even bigger challenge.4. Expect Georgia to attack earlyGeorgia has outscored opponents 94-14 in first quarters this season.The Bulldogs have also scored 41 points per game, ranking first in the SEC. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has completed 71.8 percent of his passes.Ole Miss needs to avoid an early deficit. Georgia’s ability to build leads could force the Rebels into a more predictable, pass-heavy offensive approach.5. Ole Miss’ home-field advantage mattersOct 31, 2026; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) looks on during the fourth quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn ImagesThe Rebels have won 16 consecutive games at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, the longest active home winning streak among Power Four programs.With the crowd behind them and a quarterback capable of creating explosive plays, Ole Miss has reasons to believe it can make this a difficult night for Georgia.The Bottom LineGeorgia needs to establish its rushing attack, pressure Chambliss, and take advantage of its defensive superiority. Ole Miss needs explosive quarterback play, improved rushing production, and an early lead to build on.The biggest question: Can Ole Miss’ offense generate enough against one of the nation’s top-scoring defenses, particularly without its leading running back?The Big Lead prediction: Georgia 30, Ole Miss 28—Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —