ESPN analytics predict final score of Ohio State vs. USC Saturday

After enjoying a week off, the Ohio State football team hits the road to head out to the West Coast to take on a USC team that sorely needs to engineer an upset.The Buckeyes are in the driver's seat (along with UCLA) for the Big Ten title, sitting at 4-0, but a stumble of any sort with a challenging schedule ahead could open the door for other teams like this same Trojans squad that's looking to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten and a College Football Playoff appearance.We've already taken a look at what the ESPN FPI says about the Buckeyes' chances of beating USC on Saturday, and we've also looked at the odds and a prediction, but we're continuing to make the rounds of predictions thanks to the wonderment of the worldwide web.That's right, we're adding another prediction to the mix, one from ESPN's resident analytics expert, Bill Connelly. He used the well-known SP+ analytics model to predict the final score of Ohio State vs. USC, and the model believes we'll see a decently high-scoring game in SoCal. Will Ohio State football beat USC? ESPN's final score predictionAhead of Ohio State vs. USC, ESPN's Bill Connelly predicted the final score using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Buckeyes winning by almost two touchdowns.Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 33, USC 21. Connelly does mention that there's no adjustment for the quarterback, so consider how either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair (or both) play as the x-factor in this one, filling in for the injured Julian Sayin.Connelly gives Ohio State a win probability of 77%.Where Ohio State football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings entering Week 9Ohio State is No. 1 in ESPN's SP+ team rankings, the same spot it has been for a few weeks now.Ohio State has an overall rating of 28.6, ahead of No. 2 Georgia (27.1). USC's SP+ ranking is quite a few spots behind the Buckeyes at No. 19 with an overall rating of 14.2.To break down Ohio State's rating by units, SP+ gives the Buckeyes a 39.2 rating on offense (No. 4 nationally) and an 10.7 rating on defense, which is still No. 1 nationally. On special teams, Ohio State has a 0.1 rating, a significant improvement from prior weeks, landing at No. 62 overall (a 40-spot jump).Breaking down USC's SP+ ranking, the model gives the Hoosiers a 36.6 rating on offense that's No. 9 nationally, a 22.4 rating on defense (No. 39 in the nation), and a -0.1 rating in special teams (No. 89).What are ESPN SP+ rankings?According to Connelly, SP+ is "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.""SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does," he adds.Ohio State football vs. USC: start time, channel for Week 9Kickoff for Ohio State-USC in Week 9 of the 2026 college football season is 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. The game can be seen on NBC, with Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge on the call, and with Kathryn Tappen reporting from the sidelines.Additionally, you can catch the game on radio via the Learfield radio broadcast team of Paul Keels and Jim Lachey. The banner station for the Ohio State Radio Network is 1460 WBNS radio (AM).Ohio State football schedule 2026All times Eastern.Sept. 5: vs. Ball State Cardinals (W, 56-3)Sept. 12: at Texas Longhorns (L, 24-23)Sept. 19: vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (W, 59-3)Sept. 26: vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (W, 42-19)Oct. 3: at Iowa Hawkeyes (W, 31-14)Oct. 10: vs. Maryland Terrapins (W, 45-16)Oct. 17: at Indiana Hoosiers (W, 19-15)Oct. 24: OffOct. 31: at USC Trojans, 7:30 p.m., NBCNov. 7: at Oregon Ducks, 3:30 p.m., CBSNov. 14: vs. Northwestern Wildcats, TBANov. 21: at Nebraska Cornhuskers, TBANov. 28: vs. Michigan Wolverines, Noon, FoxRecord: 6-1 overall, 4-0 Big TenContact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN analytics predict final score of Ohio State vs. USC Saturday