AEW Full Gear predictions: 5 big questions as Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher, Anarchy in the Arena await

AEW Full Gear 2026, one of the promotion's original pay-per-view franchises, takes place this weekend in Phoenix, Arizona. Featuring at least six championship matches and the annual Anarchy in the Arena brawl, Full Gear looks to continue an impressive 2026 run for Tony Khan's wrestling promotion.With such a loaded card on deck, the Uncrowned Horsemen — Kel Dansby, Robert Jackman, Drake Riggs and Anthony Sulla-Heffinger — are here to break down the event and make predictions for one of the last major AEW events of 2026.Let's ride!1. Kyle Fletcher and Will Ospreay have a long history together. What's made their rivalry work so well, and where does it go from here? Can it become an all-time AEW rivalry? Jackman: Like other longstanding wrestling partnerships, I think what gives this one the extra oomph is that both men have such a deep personal connection — that they've been friends, as well as opponents and on-off teammates, since the first time they wrestled in front of a crowd, and have since gone on to support each other in making the jump to the big leagues, both in Japan and of course AEW. I mean, they even lived together in Tokyo.When you listen to what we purists call "shoot" interviews, it's clear they have a hell of a lot of trust in each other's abilities. They also both come across as self-critical types who would probably push each other on toward the next level. It's the sort of friendship that will make both men better wrestlers for it.As for what's transpired in AEW, the secret sauce for me has been this long, ongoing thread of the Don Callis Family. You have all the elements of a deep-cut rivalry in there: The fact that Ospreay piggybacked off the Callis Family for a while, only to leave them behind when he decided to be a good guy — whereas Fletcher has stayed in the fold and learned that extra killer instinct from it.It's that same killer instinct that I predict will lead to Fletcher eventually dethroning his real-life bestie — just not this weekend. As for an all-time rivalry, it's basically one rung below Swerve and "Hangman" at the moment.Sulla-Heffinger: The beauty of this rivalry is that their styles and skill set are so similar that it's almost impossible for them not to have excellent chemistry. Nearly every time these two have shared a ring against each other in AEW, it's been in the conversation for Match of the Year.I think from a storytelling standpoint, I equate this to what we've seen play out between Roman Reigns and Seth Rollins in WWE, albeit over a significantly shorter length of time. There are obvious parallels to be made considering Fletcher's closeness with Ospreay in the United Empire and his eventual betrayal of "The Aerial Assassin."With so much history, unmatched skill sets and the fact that both are so young, there's plenty of runway for them to make this the defining men's rivalry of AEW.Will Ospreay and Kyle Fletcher are no strangers to this dance. (Lee South, AEW)Lee SouthRiggs: Well, for starters, the dudes just have the natural in-ring talent. They're two pieces of the same puzzle that combine to make the perfect picture. But what's really made their rivalry work are the differences in their characters. We've seen Ospreay rise to be the superhero of the company, while Fletcher is the supervillain, going so far as to threaten to murder Ospreay mid-match. They're effectively AEW's Goku and Vegeta — for now.I throw in that last caveat because Vegeta was always No. 2 to Goku, and that's been the case with Fletcher and surely will be for a bit. But no matter how close they ever are, Fletcher is still Ospreay's greatest rival, and will be for as long as they are in orbit.So, yes, it's an all-timer without question. Where it goes from here is a bit trickier to say, because at some point it feels like Adam Copeland will get his shot at Ospreay for the gold. I wouldn't expect it to be until after that when Fletcher takes the strap off Ospreay, because he's the perfect guy to do so outside of MJF, at least among AEW's current crop of heels.Dansby: The protégé-mentor relationship is one of the oldest storytelling tropes in entertainment. It's the foundation of classics like "Star Wars," so why wouldn't it work in professional wrestling? Fletcher and Ospreay are two of the best in-ring performers in the world, but what makes their rivalry special is how much of the storytelling happens beyond the microphone. They weave callbacks, subtle references and layers of their shared history into their matches, rewarding longtime fans while giving new viewers a reason to become invested. That's what gives this rivalry the potential to become one of AEW's all-time greats. Their chemistry is undeniable, and the story can continue evolving as Fletcher grows from Ospreay's protégé into a legitimate equal. Eventually, the student has to surpass the teacher, and that moment could be even more meaningful if AEW allows their rivalry to develop naturally over the next few years. 2. Adam Copeland has announced that 2027 will be his final year in wrestling. How would an AEW International Championship run impact his de facto retirement tour, and how would you book his last run? Sulla-Heffinger: Not that Cope needs it, but an International Championship run could be a springboard to get him to the AEW World Championship picture early on in 2027.If Fletcher beats Ospreay, you have an easy path to set up a chase for Cope. The Don Callis Family can cost Cope his International Championship, and then he goes after their top prize and Fletcher. Cope can win and then give Ospreay a shot at the title — at Double or Nothing or All In/Out — where he puts over the future of the business and sets up an ending to his retirement tour a la Cena where we get some dream/tribute matches.Riggs: I'm not sure a win Saturday would impact things too much. That doesn't mean it shouldn't happen, though. The best version we've ever seen of Cope was as the master manipulator Edge during his initial main-event rise. Going back to that in 2027 wouldn't work in the same copy-and-paste format — he's too beloved now, so making him that dastardly again would be a poor choice. But there is a way to take bits of that and shape it to work for him as a face. Make the man borderline desperate to regain a world title one last time. Maybe, in a way, that would turn him heel, but he doesn't have to reject the love he'll continue to gain from the crowd.AEW shouldn't rinse and repeat something like what WWE did with John Cena and make Copeland a world champ who goes on a run before he retires. But making him ruin the scene on his way to a final win and sendoff could be pretty great — and honestly, it could the perfect exit, given how he originally became a world champ with that famous first-ever Money in the Bank cash-in.Dansby: I don't think legends need to hold championships on their way out to make a retirement tour feel special. In fact, I have no problem with Copeland competing for titles and coming up short. The more he looks like a veteran who's lost a step or is starting to show his age, the more meaningful those occasional victories become. There's something compelling about watching a legend fight against time while trying to prove he can still compete with the best. I'd rather see Cope spend his final year checking off dream matches and enjoying himself without the pressure of carrying a championship or having to justify every new challenger. Let him wrestle the opponents he's always wanted to face, revisit a few old rivalries and give younger talent the opportunity to share the ring with a Hall of Famer. His legacy is already secure, and the retirement tour should be a celebration of that career rather than another title reign.Jackman: Winning the International Championship would be a good way to kick things off, but I'm not sure it should happen this weekend. I like Sulla's idea of having the Don Callis Family cost Copeland his chance, but I think the next play should be to set up a rematch at the upcoming Wrestle Kingdom event in January. Cope has said that appearing at the Tokyo Dome is on his bucket list and surely winning a title there is even better than just appearing.As for the last run, I'm a bit nervous about these rumors of a heel turn, though perhaps that's just a hangover from the John Cena retirement tour. That being said, winning the world title would feel justified, given that so many of his former WWE peers have held it.There would be something a bit unjust in having Chris Jericho, CM Punk and Bryan Danielson on the list, but not Edge.Who can challenge Mercedes Moné? (Lee South, AEW)Lee South3. On a scale of 1-10, what threat do you think Marina Shafir poses to Mercedes Moné's championship run? Why? Dansby: I'll give it a 9, but that's largely because of the sentimental value surrounding the untimely passing of PAC. This feels like the kind of emotional, tug-at-the-heartstrings booking decision Tony Khan has been known to make, especially when there's an opportunity to create a memorable moment for both the talent and the audience. The problem is what happens after that moment. While Shafir winning the championship could provide an emotional payoff, I'm not convinced there's enough of a long-term story to sustain her reign. Mercedes is still the centerpiece of the division, and taking the title off her should be about more than creating one feel-good night. If AEW goes in that direction, it needs to have a clear plan for Shafir beyond the initial celebration. Riggs: I'll give her a 6.This whole thing is purely based on how AEW has handled her and Death Riders following the tragic loss of PAC. Marina feels like she's taken the most goodwill and run with it since that tribute show, and she's been presented pretty well.There have been a few hiccups along the way though, which still makes it questionable for her to dethrone Moné, so I put her just over the 50-50 mark.Jackman: It's a 6 from me. Like I said in our recent power rankings update, Tony Khan took his time in elevating Mercedes Moné to the top spot, so I'm guessing he's not going to be in a rush to have her drop the gold.Though at the same time, the deeply sad passing of PAC has obviously changed the dynamic for the Death Riders, and we've seen Tony go for these more sentimental title changes in the past — like Saraya winning the world title in front of the home crowd at Wembley or Maya World winning the TBS Championship just after the death of her brother.The good thing about Shafir, of course, is that you can easily see the creative reason as to why she might be able to beat Moné when so many others have failed — because she's a legitimate martial artist who basically spars with Jon Moxley on the weekends for fun.Sulla-Heffinger: I'd say a solid7.Shafir presents a new challenge for Moné with her hard-hitting style and level of ruthlessness throughout her AEW/Death Riders run. It would be an interesting challenge for Moné to chase Shafir and have to meet her at her level to regain her championship.This would also help AEW build out a prolonged program for Moné, otherwise she'll run out of new challengers relatively quickly and it'll feel even more like we're just waiting for the return of Toni Storm. (We are.)4. After coming over from WWE earlier this year, what do you expect from The New Level in a Texas Death Match? Jackman: For a start, the stipulation massively tips the odds against them winning. Unless there is something screwy going on, it would be pretty remarkable to have "Hangman's" team losing in a Texas Death Match — the very stipulation that has basically been synonymous with Adam Page in his recent AEW run. There's also a danger The New Level end up feeling like a side attraction on Saturday, given the huge anticipation around seeing "Hangman" and Swerve go at it again Texas-style.Maybe this is the moment Swerve turns on them, after blaming their lack of hardcore credentials for costing the team the win?Dansby: Break out the unicorn syringes, because I expect The New Level to SHOW OUT! These guys are all about making history and finding new ways to push themselves, even this deep into their Hall of Fame careers. They've already accomplished just about everything possible in WWE, but AEW gives them the freedom to explore styles and stipulations that would've never been on the table in their previous home. A Texas Death Match is the perfect opportunity to show another side of their versatility. I expect them to embrace the violence, get creative with the stipulation and prove they can thrive in any style of professional wrestling. At this stage of their careers, it's less about proving they're great and more about showing fans there's still something they haven't seen from them. "Hangman" Adam Page remains the undisputed king of the Texas Death Match. (Lee South, AEW)Lee SouthSulla-Heffinger: After the maligned WWE New Day heel turn, it might seem silly to turn The New Level so early in their AEW careers, but it's exactly what I would do.I would expect some of the hesitancy and inexperience with death matches to play into the story of this match, with New Level somehow costing their team the win over Brodido and "Hangman." You then set up a segment on "Dynamite" where Swerve calls them out and questions their commitment to AEW, before Kofi and Creed just pulverize their partner, turning in the process.Riggs: This is still such a bizarre prospect. Obviously the feud has heated up recently, after New Level was hesitant and dismissive of the idea in kayfabe. But I still like the idea of them being scared of things in Saturday's match and slowly realizing what they've gotten themselves into. Surely, we could see some color from Creed, who might do more of the gruesome spots, while Kofi takes or gives some big, high-flying bumps.I will say, only one thing is mandatory from them in this match, and that's the randomly absurd inclusion of pancakes. If you know, you know.5. What song should play during the opening moments of Anarchy in the Arena? Dansby: The opening music is always one of the best parts of Anarchy in the Arena. Whether it was "The Final Countdown" or Drowning Pool's "Bodies," the soundtrack has become almost as important to the match's atmosphere as the chaos happening around the ring. The right song can turn an already ridiculous stipulation into one of the most memorable moments of the night.Selfishly, I want Juice Robinson to pick the music and give us something completely absurd like "Who Let the Dogs Out." Just imagine that playing while everyone starts beating the hell out of each other. Realistically, though, I expect the Death Riders to choose something that pays tribute to PAC. A dancehall track from Beenie Man or Sean Paul would be an interesting choice, especially if they want to give the opening a different energy than we've seen in previous years.Sulla-Heffinger: Alice Cooper has roots in Phoenix, so I would go with "No More Mr. Nice Guy" to play up the locale.Riggs: With Limp Bizkit's stunning resurgence in recent years, I have no idea how you can't do "Break Stuff." Let's get stupid, TK.Jackman: If it's meme-able nu-metal songs you're looking for, how about "Down with the Sickness" by Disturbed?Oh, and if any one of us succeeds in getting it correct, surely the Tony Khan mindreader in question would have to bag themselves at least five bonus points in our year-long predictions competition?AEW Full Gear 2026 predictionsAEW World Championship match: Will Ospreay (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs) vs. Kyle Fletcher (Sulla-Heffinger)AEW Women's World Championship match: Mercedes Moné (Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger) vs. Marina Shafir (Dansby)AEW World Tag Team Championship match: Young Bucks (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger) vs. Davis & DoyleAEW World Trios Championship, Texas Death Match: Hangman Adam Page and Brodido (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs, Sulla-Heffinger) vs. Swerve Strickland and The New LevelAEW Women's Tag Team Championship match: The Brawling Birds (Dansby, Riggs) vs. Wrathlander (Jackman, Sulla-Heffinger)AEW International Championship match: Kazuchika Okada (Dansby, Jackman, Riggs) vs. Adam Copeland (Sulla-Heffinger)Anarchy in the Arena: Death Riders and The Conglomeration (Dansby, Jackman, Sulla-Heffinger) vs. The Cut (Riggs)2026 standingsRobert Jackman: 84-34Anthony Sulla-Heffinger: 81-37Drake Riggs: 76-42Kel Dansby: 67-51