A knife-edge result, 3 possible outcomes: what comes next after NZ’s election?

Fiona Goodall/Getty Images“New Zealand has spoken,” Labour leader Chris Hipkins said to the party faithful on election night, before adding: “It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said.” There hasn’t been an MMP election quite (or even anything) like the one that played out tonight. With the ordinary vote largely counted, the incumbent coalition parties – National, ACT and New Zealand First – hold 67 seats to the left bloc’s 56, with the centrist Opportunity party getting over the parliamentary line for the first time with 7 seats. The numbers are likely to shift again with the counting of special votes, which tallied nearly 600,000 in the last election. But the big story of the night is the size of the overhang: New Zealand’s parliaments generally have 120 MPs, but it looks as if there will be 129 or 130 MPs in the next one. If so, the right bloc will hold a 1 or 2 seat majority. It promises to be a long three weeks before final results are announced. There is no way of predicting where the numbers will land, but on the basis of the election night’s provisional results, there are (at least) three possible scenarios. Read more: NZ’s next government hangs in the balance: 2026 election results at a glance Scenario 1: the right has a working majority In this scenario, National returns to office at the head of a second-term coalition government. However, it is not quite the same government that was formed following the 2023 election. The same parties will gather around the cabinet table, but both the personalities and the balance of power will have changed markedly. Most obviously, the parliamentary overhang created by National’s strong performance in the electorates – it looks to have held onto 41 of the 44 electorate seats it took at the last parliament – means Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s party has been shorn of its most senior and experienced ministers, including Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith and (in all probability) Chris Bishop. As a consequence, when the prime minister sits down at the first cabinet meeting of the returning government, he will be accompanied by fewer and less experienced National Party colleagues. He will also, of course, see more of the numpties and yahoos he derided not so many months ago. If cabinet positions are shared proportionally based on election results – and Winston Peters and David Seymour are well placed to ensure that they are – then National’s share of all cabinet positions is going to fall below the proportion it held (67%) in the coalition’s first term. Scenario 2: the coalition needs Opportunity See above – only more complicated. Under this scenario, the coalition falls just short of a majority and needs the Opportunity Party’s (TOP) support to govern. Whatever their positions before the election, David Seymour and Winston Peters will entertain doing a deal with Opportunity. The real question is whether or not Luxon will prove equally flexible. In all likelihood he will: even though he spent the entire campaign saying that he would not answer a call from Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong. If he sticks with that position, and the alternative is a return to the opposition benches, Luxon will likely be replaced as party leader (and therefore prime minister) in short order by someone who is prepared to have the difficult conversation. But Opportunity’s situation is not straightforward either in this scenario. There are real risks for Wong’s party if it opts to support a National-led government – and any preliminary decision to do so may, of course, be vetoed by the party’s board. Her party’s supporters would prefer a centre-left administration and, if the party props up a government which takes the country out of the Paris Agreement, erases the Treaty of Waitangi and does away with the minimum wage, the odds that Opportunity will continue to exist as a parliamentary force in three years time will shorten considerably. On the other hand, the party could position itself as the one that prevents the coalition from indulging its worst instincts. Opportunity will likely support the government on confidence and supply from the cross-benches – but it will have a veto over other legislation, which it could use to prevent the government from drifting too far to the right. Scenario 3: the left plus Opportunity have the numbers In this scenario, Chris Hipkins becomes the first prime minister to return to the top job following a spell as opposition leader since Keith Holyoake, who became leader of the National Party and prime minister two months before the 1957 election, and returned to power in 1960. But quite what configuration of government emerges amongst the parties on the centre-left depends on other factors. Te Pāti Māori – which on tonight’s results has five seats, creating a parliamentary overhang of their own in the process – has a choice to make. It can negotiate seats at the cabinet table, or support a Labour-led government on confidence and supply from the cross-benches. For a kaupapa Māori party, the former comes with risks. The party may, therefore, opt for an enhanced confidence and supply agreement. This would leave the party room to push harder on Treaty-related matters than they could do from within a formal coalition. Opportunity has a similar choice to make. The smart money is on the party also opting for an arrangement on confidence and supply, rather than a formal executive coalition. It seems prudent for the party’s new MPs to give themselves time to learn the rules of the parliamentary game before entertaining thoughts of ministerial office. Are we there yet? Whichever of these – or some other – scenario comes to pass will depend on special votes. This year, special votes – which typically break left – include an unusually large number of overseas votes. Although the impact of specials on the party vote is generally the focus, the size of National’s overhang means that this time round, it will be their impact on seats that National held or took narrowly on the night that will count. If Labour or the Greens flip two or three seats, that could make all the difference. Even then, there may be some final plot twists. Electorate candidates have three working days following the announcement of final results within which to lodge a request with the District Court for a recount (and the judge has a further three working days within which to commence the recount). In short, this could take some time. Meanwhile, the political clock is ticking. Constitutionally, the next parliament must meet no later than six weeks following the return of the writs. That means MPs must gather in Wellington by January 14 at the latest. There is no formal constitutional requirement for a government to have been formed by that date, but the political imperatives to have done so are significant. The politicians are going to need to work fast. Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.