5 keys to victory in Notre Dame vs. Miami playoff elimination game

Playoff implications abound as Notre Dame and Miami square off under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus.Week 10 of the college football season could rearrange the top of the rankings yet again. Miami is No. 1 in the country, and the Irish are hanging on to the No. 11 seed.Here are five things we expect will happen in South Bend on Saturday night.1. Miami will test Notre Dame up frontMiami quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,425 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just one interception. But a ton of his production just disappeared with the injury-induced absence of wideout Malachi Toney.Expect Miami to compensate by getting physical in the trenches. They’re good for almost 6 yards per carry and have 22 rushing TDs on the year. The Irish rank No. 7 against the run, but the Canes need to run the ball hard and often to shorten the game and keep the Notre Dame offense off the field.2. Notre Dame must establish its running gameSep 19, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Aneyas Williams (22) runs against the Michigan State Spartans during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn ImagesMiami ranks first nationally in run defense, allowing just 2.4 yards per carry. Notre Dame averages more than 200 rushing yards per game, but its offensive line faces a major challenge. If the Irish cannot run effectively, CJ Carr will have to shoulder more responsibility.3. CJ Carr is a strength, and a weaknessCarr has thrown 18 touchdowns against just one interception. Miami’s pass defense has been vulnerable, allowing 252 passing yards per game. If Carr gets adequate protection, Notre Dame could find opportunities for explosive plays through the air.At the same time, Carr has struggled with deep-ball accuracy recently. The quarterback is good on just 4 of 24 passes traveling at least 15 air yards over his last two games.More: Predicting ACC football scores for Week 10’s biggest games4. Notre Dame’s defensive injuries could be a problemThe Irish will be without linebacker Drayk Bowen, while defensive tackles Jason Onye and Francis Brewu are questionable. Those absences could be significant against Miami’s balanced offense. If the Hurricanes establish their running game with Mark Fletcher Jr., they could force Notre Dame’s defense to spend more time on the field.5. Miami’s offense takes a big hitThe absence of Hurricanes wideout Malachi Toney cuts sharply into this offense. Toney accounts for more than 35 percent of their catches, almost 40 percent of their yards, and nearly half of its receiving touchdowns.Not having Toney to spread the field removes elite speed and variety from this attack. Notre Dame now has the luxury to devote more resources to defending Miami’s productive ground game.The Bottom LineThe biggest question: Can Notre Dame’s defense slow down Miami’s high-powered passing attack? That looks far more likely now. But the Hurricane ground attack will still keep it very close.The Big Lead prediction: Notre Dame 27, Miami 24—Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —