10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 9

It’s late October. In many parts of the country, the air is crisp, the leaves are gorge, and pumpkin spice fever is mercifully about to break.And it’s the time of year when weird things happen in conference play, hence the Double-Digit Home Dog. I explained this last week, so I’ll do it quickly. If you’re a double-digit home underdog now, something went wrong, so now you’re just going to let it rip – the pressure is probably off. Meanwhile, the favorite has bigger fish to fry coming up. But, honestly, I’m trying to justify the unexplainable. Why does the DDHD work this time of year? Uhhhhh, I dunno, but …Last week, Boise State 31, Washington State (+14.5) 10. However, it took a finish that made Scott’s Bad Beats bit for the Broncos to cover. You want crazy? Try this. – App State (+12.5) 34, James Madison 31– Cincinnati (+10.5) 37, Texas Tech 24– Illinois (+10.5) 21, Oregon 10– Southern Miss (+11.5) 35, Louisiana 31Four double-digit home dogs, four outright wins … let’s have some fun. (The first five are all Double-Digit Home Dogs, so if you don’t care about the schtick, go to No. 5.) Results So Far: 55-40– Week 9 Schedule & Predictions– CFN Week 9 Expert Picks10. New Mexico at San Jose StateLine: New Mexico -14.5ATS Pick: San Jose StateIf I’m committing to the bit, and as I’ve discovered over the years, when I hate one of these DDHDs, (like this one), it usually hits hard. And the ones I love, don’t – although I couldn’t have hugged and smooched last week’s Cincinnati over Texas Tech outright call more.New Mexico is fantastic. It’s one of the best-coached teams in the nation, with head coach Jason Eck and his staff getting every ounce out of the talent on board to work with. The Lobos are great at maintaining total control, but in mostly low-scoring games.San Jose State isn’t bad against the run, and that’s everything against the Lobos. The Spartans don’t have enough offensive pop to win, and the fear is a repeat of the 26-10 home loss to Fresno State earlier this season, but this is just their second home game in six weeks. They’ll lose, but they’ll be tough.9. Michigan at RutgersOct 17, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines cheerleader in the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn ImagesLine: Michigan -15.5ATS Pick: Rutgers– Game Preview and PredictionI’m having a hard time buying into this one – Rutgers might not score. Seriously, UMass beat Rutgers by 16. However …How many times this year has Michigan beaten someone by more than 16? Once – 52-17 over UTEP. Okay, now, how many other times has Michigan beaten a team by more than, say, ten?Zero.Other than UTEP, how many times has Michigan beaten a team by more than seven? Zero.8. Missouri at ArkansasLine: Missouri -10ATS Pick: ArkansasI’m shoehorning this one in because Arkansas has been low-key better lately, and the line at some places is Mizzou -9.5. As of the moment I’m doing this, the line is 10.The Hogs were roasted by Utah, Georgia, and Texas A&M, but they held up well against Tennessee, didn’t have a problem in a ten-point win at Vanderbilt, and they’ve had two weeks off to rest up for this. Missouri’s last two home games: 31-24 loss to Mississippi State, 31-3 loss at Ole Miss.7. SMU at SyracuseLine: SMU -10.5ATS Pick: Syracuse– Game Preview and PredictionSyracuse has been forgotten about, but for a 3-4 team it’s playing great considering all the injuries at quarterback. It just finished a brutal run of four road games in five dates, but it played Louisville tough at home in a 34-26 loss, and was solid in last week’s 31-30 win at North Carolina.Now the Orange are finally back at home. The only double-digit loss this season was at Pitt 27-13, and that was when Pitt was still breathing. This is SMU’s third road game of the year, needing to ball out to get by Florida State 27-24 in the opener, and it lost to Louisville 41-31. And now, the last Double-Digit Home Dog is …6. Miami at North CarolinaOct 24, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick before the game against Syracuse Orange at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cory Knowlton-Imagn ImagesLine: Miami -14.5ATS Pick: North Carolina– Game Preview and PredictionAs I mentioned before, over the last 20 years, when I actually love a double-digit home underdog like this, it often blows up spectacularly in my face, so beware. Beyond just the Xs and Os – like, North Carolina might throw for well over 250 yards against a leaky Miami secondary …1) I’m having an impossible time fully buying that Miami is anything No. 1-amazing, considering its win over Wake Forest is the only interesting thing on the resume. 2) I put way too much faith in Bill Belichick coming up with some quirky defensive wrinkle in games like this, even though his Tar Heels couldn’t stop Clemson when it mattered and gave up 31 to Syracuse.3) I can NOT shake that we’re now in A Mario Cristobal’s Uber-Talented Team Will Lose a Game it Shouldn’t season. (That double-overtime game against a blah Florida State team spooked me.)5. Kent State at Sacramento StateLine: Kent State -7.5ATS Pick: Kent State – Game Preview and PredictionYou owe me nothing, Sacramento State. Picking against the Hornets has been a comfy blanket. Doing a cut-and-paste of what I wrote last week …What did I say (two weeks ago) when Ohio over Sacramento State was my No. 1 pick of the week? Never, Ever, EVER Screw With a Streak.The Bobcats were a 15-point favorite over the Hornets. Ohio won 48-7.Bowling Green beat Sac State 38-10, UMass won 35-6, North Dakota State won by 21, and Fresno State won by 46.Ball State isn’t very good. It finally beat an FBS team (two weeks ago) with a 32-31 win over Bowling Green, but until this train stops, keep on riding. (Ball State was a 14.5-point favorite and won 34-17).Kent State has failed to score more than ten points in five of the eight games, and Friday night games go screwy, but … I can’t quit you, Sac State.4. Wisconsin at IowaLine: Point Total 36.5ATS Pick: Under– Game Preview and PredictionI have been royally burned all year assuming Iowa is a natural under call. But this isn’t about the Hawkeyes.How many Wisconsin games have hit 37 combined points? Uh, each of the first four games went past 37. But since then, things have tightened up.Wisconsin’s defense has allowed ten points or fewer four times, and the UCLA game was a 17-7 loss. The Badgers appear to have figured it out defensively.From 2020 to 2023, none of the four Wisconsin-Iowa games were close to getting to 37 points. Wisconsin rolled 42-10 in 2024, and last year, Iowa won 37-0. (I’m also sort of taking a chance that the line closes closer to 38ish.)3. Utah at CincinnatiLine: Utah -7.5ATS Pick: CincinnatiNo, I won’t take my shirt off and go full McAfee, but I’m not buying into the 7-0 start after the Utes needed to work way too hard to beat a blah Colorado squad 27-24, and had to hang on to get by a solid Houston team last week. I do like this Utah team to win the Big 12, but …Cincinnati is a different team at home than it is on the road – the defense plays far better. I don’t love this unbeaten knockoff aspect like I did last week when Texas Tech rolled into Nippert, but sure, I dig the way the Bearcats are playing when they get a little momentum.Okay, you’re tired, and I appreciate you lasting this long in an ultra-gimmicky version of the 10 Best Picks Against the Spread. Your reward? Blow off the real analysis for these last two, and let’s go straight trend-candy, and you’ll see why in a moment.2. Stanford at LouisvilleOct 17, 2026; Syracuse, New York, USA; Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Clev Lubin (50) reacts to a defensive play during the second half against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn ImagesLine: Louisville -22.5ATS Pick: Louisville– Game Preview and PredictionStanford has been shockingly fantastic with an efficient offense and clutch play … AT HOME. What happens when the Cardinal have to get on a plane?Duke 35, Stanford 7Wake Forest 57, Stanford 3Notre Dame 58, Stanford 7Going back to last year, Stanford has lost by 23 or more in eight of its last nine road games. That, and Louisville has had two weeks off.1. Navy vs Notre DameLine: Notre Dame -30.5ATS Pick: Notre Dame– Game Preview and PredictionStart with this: Notre Dame has had to sit and eat it for two weeks after the BYU loss, and Navy isn’t very good, but that’s not why you called. (Deep breath … let’s go.)Notre Dame vs Navy over the last six meetings.– 2025 Notre Dame 49, Navy 10– 2024 Notre Dame 41, Navy 14– 2023 Notre Dame 42, Navy 3– The 2022 game was a strange 35-32 Notre Dame win, with the Irish going up 35-13 at halftime, and then the offense went back to the hotel. To continue …– 2021 Notre Dame 34, Navy 6– 2019 Notre Dame 52, Navy 20By the way, this is Navy’s first game against a Power Four team this season.Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.